Can the FTSE 100 index hit 10,000 in 2025?

The FTSE 100 hit an all-time high of 8,475 in the first half of 2024. Could the British stock market index charge up to 10,000 in 2025?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

The UK’s FTSE 100 index has risen in recent years. Last year, it hit an all-time high of 8,475. Could the index hit 10,000 in 2025? Let’s discuss.

A 22% gain’s needed from here

As I write this, the FTSE 100 stands at 8,222. So to hit 10,000 in 2025, it would have to rise by about 22%.

That kind of rise isn’t unheard of for a major stock index. The S&P 500, for example, eclipsed that return in both 2023 and 2024 with gains of 24% and 23%. But it’s pretty rare for the FTSE 100 to deliver that magnitude of gain. Looking at its historical performance, the last time it achieved that kind of return was in 2009.

Should you invest £1,000 in Ashtead Group Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets. And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Ashtead Group Plc made the list?

See the 6 stocks

Could it happen?

Personally, I don’t think it’s capable of rising 22% this year. One reason I say this is that last time it delivered this kind of return, stocks had just crashed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). So that was a recovery year.

In other words, it was a very different set-up to today. Back in early 2009, many stocks were at rock-bottom levels.

Another is the make up of the index itself. Currently, the top 10 holdings (which account for around 45% of the index) are AstraZeneca, Shell, HSBC, Unilever, Rio Tinto, RELX, BP, British American Tobacco, London Stock Exchange Group, and Diageo. There are some great companies in that list. But I can’t see this group, as a whole, generating prolific returns in 2025.

Bigger gains from individual stocks?

I do think there are a lot of individual FTSE 100 stocks that could rise more than 22% this year though. One example is Ashtead (LSE: AHT) which rents out construction equipment on both sides of the Atlantic.

This stock’s had a big pullback recently. Over the last month or so, it’s fallen from £64 to £50 on the back of lower guidance for the financial year ending 30 April (FY2025).

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Ashtead Group Plc PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.co.uk

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it get back to £64 by the end of the 2025 though (Goldman Sachs has a price target of £66). That would equate to a gain of 28%.

One reason I’m bullish here is that Ashtead currently generates the bulk of its revenues in the US. And with Donald Trump in the White House, the US is likely to see a lot of construction activity in the years ahead as he aims to ‘make America great again’.

If it’s looking like FY2026’s going to be a strong year for the company, the share price could move significantly higher. Currently, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio using the earnings per share forecast for FY2026’s only 14.6. So there’s room for a re-rating.

Of course, there are no guarantees this stock will rise 22% or more this year. One risk is interest rates. If they stay higher for longer, this stock may go nowhere (or even fall) because the company has a chunk of debt on its balance sheet.

I’m an investor here however, and I remain optimistic about the stock’s prospects given the backdrop in the US. And at current levels, I think the stock’s worth considering.

But what does the head of The Motley Fool’s investing team think?

Should you invest £1,000 in Ashtead Group Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Ashtead Group Plc made the list?

See the 6 stocks

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Edward Sheldon has positions in Ashtead Group Plc, Diageo Plc, London Stock Exchange Group Plc, and Unilever. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Ashtead Group Plc, AstraZeneca Plc, British American Tobacco P.l.c., Diageo Plc, HSBC Holdings, RELX, and Unilever. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

Up 30% in weeks, does the BAE Systems share price still offer value?

The BAE Systems share price has been on a tear over the past couple of months. This writer sees limited…

Read more »

Three signposts pointing in different directions, with 'Buy' 'Sell' and 'Hold' on
Investing Articles

Hunting for shares to buy as the market trembles? Remember this!

After a choppy week in global stock markets, our writer goes back to basics in his hunt for bargain shares…

Read more »

Investing Articles

3 simple principles to help build wealth in an ISA

As a new tax year opens up new ISA allowances for many investors, our writer shares a trio of things…

Read more »

Investing Articles

US trade tariffs: what they could mean for UK shares like Ashtead, Compass Group, and Experian

US trade tariffs continue to rock global markets, and the UK is no exception. Our writer considers how a new…

Read more »

Mindful young woman breathing out with closed eyes, calming down in stressful situation, working on computer in modern kitchen.
Dividend Shares

The Trump slump has smashed these FTSE 100 shares!

After a rough week for US and UK shares, investors have been shaken. But now these FTSE 100 stocks have…

Read more »

Investing Articles

£10,000 invested in Rolls-Royce shares 5 years ago is now worth…

Rolls-Royce shares have been on fire since April 2020. Part of this is the result of pandemic restrictions lifting, but…

Read more »

Young Asian woman with head in hands at her desk
Investing Articles

£10,000 invested in Tesla stock at its peak in 2024 is now worth…

Over the last few months, Tesla stock has lost nearly half its value. Here, Edward Sheldon explores a few takeaways…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is the S&P 500 heading for an epic stock market crash?

Our writer shares his thoughts on a very crazy time for the S&P 500 and the wider stock market. How…

Read more »