Each month, the inflow and outflow of investor funds to the stock market is measured. By taking a look at where money’s piling in or out of, it can give me a good feeling for current investor sentiment. Based on the latest data for November, something very interesting happened which could spark a rally into next year.
Data details
According to data provider Calastone, funds invested in UK stocks gained a net £317m from retail investors for the month. This is significant because for the past 41 consecutive months (since May 2021), UK funds had experienced outflows.
To me, that’s big. One point it highlights is that retail investors see value in UK stocks. This doesn’t surprise me. I wrote earlier in the month why I think the FTSE 100 could do well in 2025 compared to the S&P 500. The current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is 31.17. Yet for the FTSE 100 it’s only 15.5. So part of the inflow to UK stocks could be related to investors booking profits on potentially overvalued US shares and moving that money to UK ideas.
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It could also indicate that sentiment around future growth prospects for the UK’s improving. In the final quarter of the year, investors start to think about where they want to allocate money for the following year. I know I do. So the inflow in November could indicate the start of a stock market rally, based on more inflows in coming months. Naturally, if more money’s pouring into UK stocks, the respective share prices will go up.
Where to go from here
Some might already be thinking about how to invest based on this information. Buying a FTSE 100 tracker could be something to consider. Yet in terms of a specific stock, AstraZeneca‘s (LSE:AZN) worth thinking about, I believe.
The company is the largest stock by market-cap in the FTSE 100. So for investors that simply want to buy a mature, large-cap share, AstraZeneca could benefit.
It also appeals due to being in the pharmaceutical sector. This area has a proven track record of profitability. With the UK population aging, demand for drugs and related products is likely to only go higher. This should future-proof revenue for AstraZeneca. It’s also a defensive sector, meaning that even if the UK goes in a recession, people will still need to buy medicine.
The stock’s up a modest 1% over the past year and trades well below 52-week highs. This factor might appeal to investors, who feel that they might be getting good value. However, I’d be cautious in assuming this, as the price-to-earnings ratio is 34.28. This is well above the index average and is a risk to note.
The bottom line
I think that the November data’s significant. For investors that agree, it could be worth considering making use of excess cash and putting that money to work in UK stocks over the coming month, to potentially benefit from more inflows next year.
