For years I watched the BAE Systems (LSE: BA) share price climb and climb, wondering whether I’d missed my chance to buy the FTSE 100 defence and aerospace manufacturer.
It’s a common problem with momentum stocks. I’m always worried I’ll buy just as the stock runs out of road. But I decided I’d waited long enough and dived in on 7 March at around £13 a share.
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Unbelievably it carried on climbing so I averaged up on 8 May at around £14 and inevitably that’s when the road ended. Sod’s law strikes again.
Can this FTSE 100 stock continue to fly?
I’m only down a few percentage points so I’ve got little to complain about. The shares were bound to idle after the strong run they’ve had. They’re up 17.94% over 12 months and 131% over five years.
I prefer to buy stocks after they’ve fallen out of favour, when they’re cheap and look like a bargain. It’s rare for me to buy a stock trading at 20.44 times earnings, as BAE Systems does today.
I still think it’s a great long-term buy-and-hold though. Sadly, that’s for all the wrong reasons as the world gets more warlike. However, much of that is priced in, with Bank of America recently noting that European defence stocks were trading at a 47% premium relative to the index.
BAE Systems has a price-to-revenue ratio of 1.7, which suggests investors have to pay £1.70 for each £1 of sales. So it looks pricey by that measure too. But then, it usually does. Because it’s a great company.
On 1 August, it posted a 13% rise in sales to £13.4bn, but it wasn’t all good news. Order intake fell from £21.1bn to £15.1bn year on year. That’s still pretty good but a key reason markets love this stock is its huge order backlog, which gives great earnings visibility. Any sign of a slowdown is therefore a worry. The board still expects sales to rise between 12% and 14% this year, beating previous guidance.
No stock rises in a straight line forever. At some point, BAE Systems shares were likely to slow or even fall. But it’s strange to see this happen as war rages in Ukraine, China menaces and the Middle East gets uglier.
Brokers remain optimistic. The 15 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts have produced a medium price of £14.59. If correct, that’s up 13.5% from here. No guarantees though.
I’ll get lots of dividends and growth over time
BAE Systems has a modest trailing yield of 2.33%. However, it has a good record of increasing dividends. Let’s see what the chart says.
Chart by TradingView
As with any stock, there are risks. Peace could break out. Orders could drop as cash-strapped Western governments juggle priorities. Cheap drones are changing the nature of warfare, and big defence will have to adjust.
But human nature suggests to me that BAE Systems will be selling planes, tanks and ships for years to come. I’d be astonished if this didn’t prove one of the most successful stocks in my portfolio in the long run. The near-term is neither here nor there.
I don’t regret buying BAE Systems in March. Its shares rarely trade at a discount. The best time to buy them is whenever I have the cash. And that’s what I did.
