The abrdn (LSE: ABDN) share price has had another shocking time, crashing 18.02% in the last week. So is this the end of the line or an unmissable opportunity for some brave or crazy Fool to catch this FTSE 250 falling knife?
A word of warning. All those brave or crazy investors who tried before are counting their fingers. In March 2017, when the fund manager was formed by the £11bn merger between Standard Life and Aberdeen Asset Management, abrdn shares traded at 385p. Today, they’re down to 141p, having lost two-thirds of their value.
Is this the FTSE 250’s biggest bargain?
I do love a bargain and I’ve been keeping a close eye on this falling star. Lately, the pace of descent had slowed. abrdn’s shares are down just 7.27% over 12 months. That’s modest slippage, by its standards.
So what’s behind this latest blow? On 24 October, it disappointed investors yet again by revealing further outflows during Q3, particularly in Asia, where it has outsized exposure.
It wasn’t all bad new. abrdn actually posted a 2% increase in assets under management to £507bn year-to-date as market sentiment picked up and its acquisition of interactive investor turned out nicely.
Year-to-date net outflows of £4.5bn are notably lower than last year’s £13.5bn. I guess that’s progress of sorts.
Group CEO Jason Windsor is battling to stem the flow through strategic re-pricing, technology investment and service improvements. But he won’t turn things around overnight
I think markets have been tough on the stock. Give a dog a bad name, and all that. First-half results, published in August, showed promise, although that only made Q3 more disappointing.
Given its troubles, I thought abrdn might be cheaper. A price-to-earnings ratio of 10.32 is okay. However, the price-to-sales ratio of 1.8 suggests investors have to pay 180p for every £1 of sales, which feels steep.
That’s a brilliant yield. So what’s the catch?
The 15 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts have set a median target of 160.4p. If correct, that would suggest 13.76% growth from here. Throw in the bumper 10.35% trailing dividend yield, and the total return would be heading towards 25%. Of course, broker predictions can’t be relied on. Nor can dividends.
So is the dividend sustainable? That sky-high income is the sole consolation for its long-suffering investor base so the board will only cut in extremis. However, it has frozen the payout at 14.6p per share since the pandemic, so I’m not expecting much growth for a while yet. Let’s see what the charts say.
Chart by TradingView
It’s a risky but potentially rewarding opportunity, for those who think stock markets are heading for brighter times. A rising tide could float all boats, even this rocky one.
abrdn isn’t the only wealth manager suffering. Plenty of UK financial services companies have ultra-high yields and modest valuations today. Although few have suffered the same scale of meltdown.
I’m sorely tempted to buy. However, I said that three months ago too, and I’m glad I didn’t. I’m short of ready cash right now and will probably resist again. One day, some brave or crazy Fool could make a killing on this stock. But it probably won’t be me.
