It’s been a terrific year for the Lloyds (LSE: LLOY) share price. After promising to do the business for years, it’s finally delivered.
Lloyds shares have soared 45.1% over the last year. The FTSE 100 has had a good year, rising 13.67% over the same period, but Lloyds smashed that. That’s not bad for a boring old UK-focused high street bank, as many now see it.
Throw in a trailing yield of 4.43%, and investors are sitting on a total annual return of almost 50%. Happily, I’m one of them.
Can this FTSE 100 stock climb even higher?
Lloyds shares continue to push on, jumping 7.43% in the last month. They were lifted by news that UK consumer price inflation dropped to 1.7% in September. Markets expect two more interest rate cuts this year, which should boost mortgage demand and house prices.
That’s great news for Lloyds, which is the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, but the market is highly competitive so it doesn’t have much pricing power.
Falling base rates will squeeze net interest margins, the difference between what banks pay savers and charge borrowers. After peeking at 3.11%, Lloyds is expecting margins of around 2.95% across 2024. Falling debt impairments should offer some consolation.
The shares still look decent value, judging by its trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8. That’s well below the FTSE 100 average of 15.4 times. However, when I bought the stock last year it only paid around six times. So it’s not quite as cheap as it was.
A price-to-book ratio of 0.86 looks okay (I bought at 0.6) but is edging closer to the figure of one that’s usually seen as fair value.
The price-to-sales (P/S) is 0.94. This means investors are paying 94p for each £1 of sales it makes. Again, it’s not as good value as it was.
This blue-chip’s likely to slow
There’s a big cloud over Lloyds as the Competition and Markets Authority continues its investigation into motor finance mis-selling. The board has set aside £450m but the bill could be much higher. We simply don’t know yet.
The 18 analysts offering one-year price forecasts for Lloyds have set a median share price target of 64.44p. That’s a meagre 3%-or-so above today’s 62p. As ever, there’s a wide range of estimates. One broker reckons Lloyds shares could fall to 54p, another’s aiming at 76p. But, overall, it’s a bit disappointing.
I’m a little disappointed too, but not surprised. Lloyds was always likely to slow after such a strong run. That’s fine by me. I bought it mostly for income, and will treat the odd share price growth spurt as icing on the cake.
While the trailing yield looks relatively low, that’s mostly down to the stock’s stellar run. Lloyds is forecast to yield 5.4% next year and 6.2% in 2025. The yield should keep growing after that although, as ever, dividends are never guaranteed.
I’ll reinvest every penny I receive and bide my time while I wait for the next share price hop. I’ll probably have to wait a few years before Lloyds goes anywhere near £1. Never mind. Given my early success, there are no complaints from this department.
