According to the Financial Conduct Authority, 9.26% of the stock of Diversified Energy Company (LSE:DEC), the FTSE 250 gas producer, has been shorted. Ten investors have borrowed nearly £40m of the shares in the hope that they’ll go down in value.
The movement in the share price over the past five years might explain this pessimism. Compared to September 2019, it’s fallen 63%. And it’s down 25% since the start of 2024.
Personally, I like DEC’s business model.
It buys existing gas fields in the US and seeks to improve their operational performance and useful economic lives. It’s argued that exploiting existing sites rather than drilling for new ones is better for the environment.
Drilling into the detail
However, it’s a very complicated business to understand.
It regularly buys and sells fields, enters into long-term hedging arrangements, has a complicated debt structure and carries a provision in its balance sheet for the cost of retiring wells. This can make its financial performance difficult to analyse.
For example, one of its preferred measures is net debt-to-pro-forma trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation). Get your head around that!
But cash doesn’t lie.
In 2023, the company generated $410m from its operations. And during the six months ended 30 June 2024, it made $161m.
However, the company’s appetite for buying more wells and its need to repay its significant debt pile means a lot of this is given to third parties.
Politically unpopular
Concerns have been expressed that DEC is underestimating the cost of closing its wells.
In December 2023, four members of the US House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce published a letter claiming that agreements with certain states allow the company to defer up to $2bn of environmental liabilities. Although lawful, the authors claim this enables DEC to give “the appearance of profitability on paper“.
The company refutes the assertion. In its defence it says that the allegations originate from an old story that was previously proven to be inaccurate. It also points to the awards that it’s won for its reporting transparency. And to the fact that the group’s auditors have never raised the topic.
Encouraging valuation metrics
Despite these issues — which could explain why the stock’s so popular with short sellers — I think it remains one of the best income shares around.
It currently pays a ‘fixed’ dividend of $1.16 (88.2p) a year, which at a current (4 October) share price of 898p, implies an impressive yield of 10.2%. But as a reminder that dividends are never guaranteed, its payout was cut by two-thirds in 2023.
Interestingly, the company’s market cap of £440m is now not far off its book value as of 30 June 2024 of $548m (£416m). On the face of it, the shares appear to offer good value.
For these reasons, I remain a fan of the company — it’s been on my watchlist for a while.
But I don’t want to invest.
That’s because of the apparent long-term decline in its share price. Irrespective of what I think, if others have concerns about the company, its stock will continue to fall. And in these circumstances — even with such a generous dividend on offer — I don’t want to part with my hard-earned cash.
