The long slide in the BT Group (LSE: BT.A) share price might be over. At least, we’ve seen a nice gain since the telecoms giant told us in May that it had “passed peak capex on our full fibre broadband rollout and achieved our £3 billion cost and service transformation programme a year ahead of schedule“.
The company, the board said, had “reached the inflection point on our long-term strategy“.
What next?
How much further might BT shares go by the end of the year?
Well, firstly, let me explain two things that I don’t use as a basis for an investment decision. One is short-term expectations, and the other is analyst price targets. At least, not on their own.
But I do think I can use them to gauge sentiment. And to help me get a feel for how recent events could turn into longer-term trends.
It depends who we ask, but looking around I see an average price target of 199p for the next 12 months. There’s a wide spread, though, with a low of 110p and a high of 290p. Talk about hedging your bets!
Price rise
With the BT share price at 150p at the time of writing, that average target would mean a 33% rise in 12 months. But can that be realistic?
It’s maybe worth noting that BT shares have been up around that level a few times since the 2020 stock market crash. So investors didn’t seem fazed by higher prices, and that was even before the strategic “inflection point“.
The forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is about 10.6. So the target implies a rise to 14, close to the long-term FTSE 100 average.
BT’s big debt would play havoc with this, if we adjusted for it. But history shows that BT shareholders seem happy with high debt levels, as long as they keep getting their dividends.
Dividend yield
I’d say the 5.3% on the cards for this year looks less risky than it’s been for a long time, after that last set of results. A new share price of 199p would drop the yield to around 4%. That’s about average for the Footsie, but could still look good for a stock with further growth potential.
Forecasts ahead as far as 2027 would see the P/E dropping a little to 13, with earnings per share (EPS) predicted to rise modestly after 2025. Slow EPS growth could be a handicap.
So, do I like the prospects for BT well enough now to buy some shares? I’m still torn, mainly because I’ve been looking at it for the dividend. Targets like this now make me think there could be some nice price gains too.
Still don’t like debt
The main drawback for me is net debt, which was up at an an eye-watering £19.5bn at FY results time. In tough times, that could cause pain. And any threat to the dividend could mean a new share price slide.
But I do think BT shares are worth considering at today’s price.
