Down 25%, where will the British American Tobacco share price go next?

The British American Tobacco share price has taken a hit. But this Fool isn’t deterred. He think’s now could be the time to buy.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Image source: British American Tobacco

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

The British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) share price is down 25.2% in the last year. I think the stock could now be one of the best bargains on the FTSE 100.

I’m already a shareholder in the tobacco stalwart. But at their current price, I think the shares could be a screaming buy.

A dying industry?

Now, I know what many investors will think. The company sells cigarettes. Isn’t that a dying industry?

Well, I can’t argue with that. Governments across the world have made no secret of their desire to eradicate smoking. As we push towards a ‘smoke-free’ society, this could harm British American Tobacco.

We saw this most recently in its 2023 results. Where before it was assumed that brands sold in its US market, such as Newport, were expected to have an indefinite life, the business now estimates these brands to have a useful economic life “not exceeding 30 years”.

Last year, it sold 555bn cigarettes. Those sales made up 81% of its revenue. So, it’s clearly still heavily reliant on these sales. ESG (environmental, social, governance)-focused investors will no doubt be avoiding buying the stock any time soon.

New Categories excels

But 555bn is a massive number, right? And while in years to come we may see smoking become extinct, this won’t be for some time. Right now, it’s still a huge market.

On top of that, I’m not too worried about that. That’s because British American Tobacco has made great strides in its New Categories division, which sells vapour and oral products. For 2023, revenue for this division jumped an impressive 21%. It marked the first year that it turned a profit. That’s two years ahead of schedule.

A meaty yield

There’s also another major draw that comes with a beaten-down share price. A whopping 9.8% dividend yield. If I wanted to find a higher yield on the FTSE 100, I’d be hard-pressed. In fact, my only options would be Vodafone and Phoenix Group Holdings.

As if its meaty yield wasn’t enough, there’s also the fact it’s a Dividend Aristocrat. The business has increased its annual payout for almost 25 years. Of course, dividends are never guaranteed. But that incredible track record makes me confident of receiving a payment.

As a shareholder, it was also pleasant to read in the firm’s full-year results its intentions to look to return value to shareholders. British American Tobacco owns a 30% stake in ITC, India’s largest cigarette manufacturer. However, it’s planning a partial sale in the months to come. With the money it receives, investors are optimistic the business will implement share buybacks.

Where next?

So, where will the British American Tobacco share price head next? I’m hoping it’ll be upwards.

The business faces a major challenge in the years to come as it adapts to changing consumer trends and government regulations. However, it showed its potential last year, posting a strong performance in its alternative products range. The extra income is a bonus too.

If I had the cash, I’d add to my position with the intention to hold onto my shares for the long run.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Charlie Keough has positions in British American Tobacco P.l.c. The Motley Fool UK has recommended British American Tobacco P.l.c. and Vodafone Group Public. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Young Caucasian woman with pink her studying from her laptop screen
Investing Articles

These 3 growth stocks still look dirt cheap despite the FTSE hitting all-time highs

Harvey Jones is hunting for growth stocks that have missed out on the recent FTSE 100 rally and still look…

Read more »

Chalkboard representation of risk versus reward on a pair of scales
Investing Articles

Here’s how much I’d need to invest in UK income stocks to retire on £25k a year

Harvey Jones is building his retirement plans on a portfolio of top UK dividend income stocks. There are some great…

Read more »

Investing Articles

If I’d invested £5,000 in BT shares three months ago here’s what I’d have today

Harvey Jones keeps returning to BT shares, wondering whether he finally has the pluck to buy them. The cheaper they…

Read more »

Warren Buffett at a Berkshire Hathaway AGM
Investing Articles

Here’s how I’d aim for a million, by investing £150 a week

Our writer outlines how he’d aim for a million in the stock market through regular saving, disciplined investing, and careful…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s how the NatWest dividend could earn me a £1,000 annual passive income!

The NatWest dividend yield is over 5%. So if our writer wanted to earn £1,000 in passive income each year,…

Read more »

Young female hand showing five fingers.
Investing Articles

I’d start buying shares with these 5 questions

Christopher Ruane shares a handful of selection criteria he would use to start buying shares -- or invest for the…

Read more »

Businessman use electronic pen writing rising colorful graph from 2023 to 2024 year of business planning and stock investment growth concept.
Investing Articles

Here’s how much income I’d get if I invested my entire £20k ISA in Tesco shares

Harvey Jones is wondering whether to take the plunge and buy Tesco shares, which offer solid growth prospects and a…

Read more »

Investor looking at stock graph on a tablet with their finger hovering over the Buy button
Investing Articles

1 big-cap stock I’d consider buying with the FTSE 100 around 8,000

With several contenders it’s been a tough choice. But here are my top FTSE 100 stock picks, despite the buoyant…

Read more »