The Ocado (LSE: OCDO) share price is down heavily today. That’s despite the company reporting what appears to be a fairly robust set of full-year numbers. What’s going on?
Revenue up
Let’s focus on the good stuff first.
At £2.5bn, revenue for the 12 months to 28 November was 7.2% higher than the previous year. As one might expect, the vast majority of this came from retail sales via its joint venture with Marks & Spencer. One thing that’s particularly worth highlighting here is that sales were also 41.5% higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. This, if anything, goes some way to endorsing CEO Tim Steiner’s belief that online grocery demand is “here to stay”.
Away from its retail arm, Ocado opened five of its high-tech Customer Fulfilment Centres (CFCs) over the period. Seen by many investors as the reason to own the stock, two of these were located in the US. This, in turn, helped revenue from its international solutions arm soar over 300% to £66.6m. A total of 13 sites are now up and running around the world.
What’s got investors so frustrated?
Unfortunately, the company hasn’t been immune to worker shortages. A lack of HGV drivers served as a growth headwind in the second half of the year. A fire at its Kent distribution centre last July also reduced capacity.
Collectively, these factors — combined with the ongoing costs of developing its tech — may go some way to explaining why the Ocado is out of favour again today.
Ocado share price: opportunity or warning?
Taking into account today’s significant fall, the Ocado share price has now tumbled 23% in 2022 alone. The performance over the last 12 months is even more depressing for loyal holders. No less than 56% has been wiped off the company’s value.
As someone focused on growing wealth over the long term, should I see this as an opportunity to build a position?
Looking at the positives, it’s clear that Ocado’s tech is in demand with a total of nine CFCs due to open in 2022. Assuming the company really can help partners “go-live quicker, at lower cost and achieve higher margins and returns on capital“, I can only see this annual number rising in future years.
The company is also proving increasingly popular with shoppers. Customer numbers rose 22% over the last financial year and orders rose nearly 12% to 357,000.
On the flip side, a £9bn valuation remains lofty considering this company made a loss of £177m in 2021 due to increased investment. And even if Ocado made all the right moves from here, there’s a possibility that shareholders could see the value of their holdings fall further in 2022 as the market grows increasingly averse to ‘jam tomorrow’ companies.
A safer bet?
The awful performance of the Ocado share price in the last year is further evidence that no investment is risk-free. It also highlights that sentiment towards even the biggest UK companies can quickly reverse.
Personally, I’m in no hurry to buy this beaten-down stock today. In fact, I’d be more inclined to buy a slice of market-leader Tesco.
While lacking Ocado’s technical know-how and growth prospects, its forecast £60bn revenue is 24 times that of its FTSE 100 peer. It has its own risks, but may also be regarded as a better option for coping with inflationary times due to its pricing clout and 3.7% dividend.
