The Motley Fool

Why I think the Rolls-Royce share price can rise more

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

A Rolls-Royce employee works on an engine
Image: Rolls-Royce

Last week Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) surprised with a net profit for the first half of 2021. The FTSE 100 aero engine manufacturer was seriously affected by the lockdown last year, since a big part of its sales come from the civil aviation business. And as we know all too well, 2020 was not exactly the year for travel.  

So it was not expected to recover this fast. Moreover, Roll-Royce’s earnings woes date back far longer than just the pandemic. Even earlier it was clocking losses. So it looks like a pretty impressive feat to me. 

One Killer Stock For The Cybersecurity Surge

Cybersecurity is surging, with experts predicting that the cybersecurity market will reach US$366 billion by 2028more than double what it is today!

And with that kind of growth, this North American company stands to be the biggest winner.

Because their patented “self-repairing” technology is changing the cybersecurity landscape as we know it…

We think it has the potential to become the next famous tech success story. In fact, we think it could become as big… or even BIGGER than Shopify.

Click here to see how you can uncover the name of this North American stock that’s taking over Silicon Valley, one device at a time…

Is the Rolls-Royce share price undervalued?

Its share price has already made gains since. And I think that if it is able to sustain its performance, it could rise higher. To assess this, I did a quick forecast based on its latest earnings. If its net profit remains unchanged in the second half of the year from the first half, it will end 2021 with £786m as statutory net earnings. At today’s market capitalisation, these numbers reflect a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 12 times. 

However, the P/E of the FTSE 100 index as a whole is about 15 times. This means that Rolls-Royce’s earnings ratio is less than that for the index as a whole. Since, it is a stock with potential, now that travel is possible, I think its share price would gravitate closer to the average earnings ratio over time. At a P/E of 15 times for the company, its share price would rise by around 28% to 140p. 

And this is when I have assumed that neither the company’s net profits nor the FTSE 100 index’s P/E ratio are likely to be any higher in the next few months. In other words, these are fairly conservative, if quite rough, estimates. It is possible for its share price to be far higher in another few months. 

The downside

At the same time, I think it is also possible that its earnings upside may not continue. I say this for two reasons. One, the latest increase was unexpected because it was supported by a big tax credit, which made up for 71% of the profits. This item may or may not support profits in the future. 

I think the numbers on underlying net profits or even operating profits are a better measure of the real upturn in its fortunes. These can help in getting a more rounded picture for the Rolls-Royce share price trajectory over time. 

My takeaway

At the same time, the company is also undergoing restructuring, which includes a disposals programme, so headline earnings may still continue to surprise. 

As a result, I think the Rolls-Royce share price can rise more which ever way I look at it, at least in the short term. However, for my long-term investments, I would still consider the stock carefully. And wait for reliable profits from its business, not repeating one-off bump-ups in earnings.

Our 5 Top Shares for the New “Green Industrial Revolution"

It was released in November 2020, and make no mistake:

It’s happening.

The UK Government’s 10-point plan for a new “Green Industrial Revolution.”

PriceWaterhouse Coopers believes this trend will cost £400billion…

…That’s just here in Britain over the next 10 years.

Worldwide, the Green Industrial Revolution could be worth TRILLIONS.

It’s why I’m urging all investors to read this special presentation carefully, and learn how you can uncover the 5 companies that we believe are poised to profit from this gargantuan trend ahead!

Access this special "Green Industrial Revolution" presentation now

Manika Premsingh has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Our 6 'Best Buys Now' Shares

Renowned stock-picker Mark Rogers and his analyst team at The Motley Fool UK have named 6 shares that they believe UK investors should consider buying NOW.

So if you’re looking for more stock ideas to try and best position your portfolio today, then it might be a good day for you. Because we're offering a full 33% off your first year of membership to our flagship share-tipping service, backed by our 'no quibbles' 30-day subscription fee refund guarantee.

Simply click below to discover how you can take advantage of this.