I understand why some investors are drawn to luxury carmaker Aston Martin Lagonda (LSE: AML). While James Bond’s traditional car of choice may command a six-figure price tag, the Aston Martin share price is in pennies.
That can seem surprising.
Aston Martin has a highly desirable product that it makes in limited quantities, meaning it can sell it for a pretty penny. The firm also benefits from a customer base with the lucrative combination (for Aston Martin) of deep pockets and a deep attachment to the brand.
So, could that propel the Aston Martin share price back to £1 or higher in future? Given that that would be more than double today’s price, ought I to consider investing?
Business, business model, and value are three different things
Answering that question, I think it is helpful to differentiate between a few different things that some investors sometimes do not bother to separate.
One is the basics of the business. Does Aston Martin have the potential to do well?
Absolutely.
From its storied history to its distinctive styling and skilled workforce, Aston Martin’s business of flogging pricey cars to wealthy customers could potentially be very lucrative.
But just because a business has the potential to be lucrative does not necessarily mean that it will. This is where the concept of a business model is important.
While Aston Martin has the potential to be a good business, since its stock market listing in 2018 it has not yet proven that it has a business model that works.
Its most recent quarter demonstrates the problem.
The company grew revenues 16% year on year to £270m. But its pre-tax loss still came in at £66m. Over the long term, that is not a sustainable business model.
This share might not be cheap despite its price
Even if Aston Martin can fix its business model – and for now I think that remains a big if, given its consistently disappointing performance since coming to market – that does not necessarily mean its share price is a bargain.
Funding those ongoing losses has been costly. The company has net debt of £1.5bn. It needs to pay interest on its borrowings, a lot of it at high rates.
Sooner or later it will also need to repay the principal or find some other way of retiring the debt (for example, swapping it for shares, which would further dilute existing shareholders).
That, I think, helps explain why the Aston Martin share price has plummeted 93% in five years.
Investors are not persuaded that it can make money over the long run – and even if it does, the debt burden is a significant challenge.
I’m not touching this
If things do not improve, I think the Aston Martin share price could ultimately hit zero. No matter how cheap a share may look, it can always get cheaper.
Conversely, Aston Martin is not now priced for success. Sales revenues are growing and the company expects “further financial improvement” over the course of this year.
If it delivers on that, proves its business model, and substantially reduces debt, the current share price may yet be a steal.
The risks are too high for me, though, and I will not be investing any time soon.
