A year ago, I wrote that the Aston Martin Lagonda Holdings (LSE: AML) share price was falling “faster than a Bond villain out of a helicopter”. The company’s £4.33bn market-cap at flotation had shrunk to £542m in just 18 months, a drop of almost 90%. My conclusion? “It would need a 007 scriptwriter to get the company out of today’s tight spot.”
How funny I thought I was then. But I’m not laughing now. The Aston Martin share price has since rebounded 95%. With one bound, the James Bond car maker was free! If anybody needs a better scriptwriter, it’s me.
In my defence, I was writing in the gloomy early months of the pandemic, long before November’s Covid vaccine breakthrough triggered a growth stock revival. Few saw that coming in May.
Bond’s car maker is back
The share price revival has also been driven by a management shake-up at Aston Martin, bringing in new CEO Tobias Moers and four independent non-executive directors. In October, German car brand Mercedes Benz said it would increase its stake in Aston Martin to 20% by 2023. The group also settled its short-term liquidity needs.
The Aston Martin share price has idled lately and this week ‘s first quarter results did little to change that. Yet they looked promising to me.
Q1 losses before tax narrowed from £110.1m to £42.2m, year-on-year, while revenues shot up 153% to £224.4m. This was “principally due to wholesale growth and stronger pricing dynamics,” as Aston Martin reduced its dealer GT/Sport stock as planned.
Wholesales jumped 134% to 1,353 units. The UK lockdown “significantly disrupted” dealer operations, but still delivered 19% year-on-year growth.
The FTSE 250 group’s new luxury SUV looks like a winner, generating 55% of those wholesale sales. The group is famed for its grand tourers and sports cars, but SUVs are much bigger sellers. This could help the Aston Martin share price fire on all cylinders. Sales in China were particularly strong.
Today’s Aston Martin share price tempts me
But the iconic brand still has to play catch-up in the electric vehicle market. It aims to sell its new plug-in hybrid DBX from 2023, and first battery vehicle “mid-decade”.
Naturally, the Aston Martin share price is now more expensive than when I gunned it down a year ago. The market-cap is now £2bn. The company remains risky, given stiff competition in the electric car market. Past volatility can’t just be forgotten. I expect plenty more of that.
The much-postponed Bond movie No Time To Die is scheduled for an October release, which should give the Aston Martin profile another boost and, with luck, its share price too. The stock remains risky, but I’d say it’s a tempting buy for the long term.
Given my previous forecast, some might see that as a trigger to sell, instead. Now let’s see what’s in this year’s script.
