Why I’d buy and hold the AstraZeneca share price for the next 20 years

Rupert Hargreaves outlines why he believes AstraZeneca plc (LON: AZN) could help you retire early.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN) knows a thing or two about the pharmaceutical business. Indeed, the company is one of the largest drug researchers and manufacturers in the world, with a market capitalisation of £71bn at the time of writing.

I believe this company has considerable investment appeal. A string of new products have hit the market over the past 12 months, and there’s plenty more to come. These launches should push earnings higher at a steady clip, and support dividend growth.

The company is already one of the most attractive dividend stocks in the FTSE 100. I believe its dividend credentials will only improve over the coming years as sales growth filters through to the bottom line.

Investments paying off

It only takes a quick look at City forecasts to see that analysts are expecting Astra’s growth to take off. For 2018, they’ve pencilled in an earnings per share (EPS) increase of 55%. This is followed by a projected expansion of 14% in 2019.

These numbers are impressive, but are they too good to be true?

I reckon the figures might actually be understating Astra’s potential. Over the past five years, the company has pulled itself through a transition period. As revenue has tailed off from blockbuster legacy products, management has prioritised the development of new treatments, particularly in the field of cancer treatment, or oncology. 

The focus on these products means Astra has become somewhat of a global leader in the oncology space, and while it’s still early days for this sector of the healthcare market, the long term revenue opportunity here is bigger than anything that has come before.

New products 

Today, Astra announced that it’s moving along with the development of yet another game-changing treatment, Lynparza. 

Designed to help treat pancreatic cancer, the US Food and Drug Administration has awarded the treatment orphan drug status, a label given to medicines intended to treat disorders affecting fewer than 200,000 people. The designation is designed to streamline the approvals process for such orphan drugs. Lynparza’s effectiveness is currently being tested in a phase III trial, the results of which are expected in the first half of 2019.

Lynparza is just one of several oncology treatments that Astra is working on, some of which analysts believe could generate several billion dollars in sales per annum for the company.

Because Astra has the exclusive manufacturing rights for these treatments when they hit the market, they’ll give the firm a predictable, steady income stream for many years to come.

With this being the case, I don’t view the stock’s current valuation of 21.7 times forward earnings as prohibitive. I’d happily pay this multiple today considering the company’s position at the cutting edge of cancer research and treatment, as well as its long-term growth and income potential.

Rupert Hargreaves owns no share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended AstraZeneca. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Stack of one pound coins falling over
Investing Articles

Want to turn your ISA into a passive income machine? These 3 steps help

Christopher Ruane looks at a trio of factors he reckons could help an investor as they aim to earn passive…

Read more »

Investing For Beginners

2 FTSE shares that have been oversold in this stock market correction

Jon Smith reviews the recent market slump and points out a couple of FTSE shares he believes have been oversold…

Read more »

Warren Buffett at a Berkshire Hathaway AGM
Investing Articles

As the stock market moves down, I’m taking the Warren Buffett approach!

Rather than getting nervous as markets move around, our writer is looking to the career of Warren Buffett to see…

Read more »

Fans of Warren Buffett taking his photo
Investing Articles

Here’s how a stock market crash could be brilliant news for your retirement!

This writer isn't peering into a crystal ball trying to time the next stock market crash. Instead, he's making an…

Read more »

Burst your bubble thumbtack and balloon background
Investing Articles

Down 93%, should I load up on this penny stock while it’s under 1p?

The small-cap company behind this penny stock is eyeing up a substantial global market opportunity. So why did it crash…

Read more »

Portrait of pensive bearded senior looking on screen of laptop sitting at table with coffee cup.
Investing Articles

Is Fundsmith Equity still worth holding in a Stocks and Shares ISA or SIPP in 2026?

The performance of the Fundsmith Equity fund has been shocking over the last two years. Is it still smart to…

Read more »

Young female hand showing five fingers.
Investing Articles

5 smart moves to make before the 2025/2026 ISA deadline

Taking advantage of the annual allowance isn’t the only smart move to make before the upcoming ISA deadline, says Edward…

Read more »

Businesswoman calculating finances in an office
Investing Articles

Here’s the dividend forecast for Lloyds shares through to 2028

Can dividend forecasts tell investors much about the outlook for banking shares? Stephen Wright sets out what investors really need…

Read more »