Sounds too good to be true? Let’s see.

Risk versus reward

There are some great examples of penny stocks delivering huge returns. But there are also plenty of dismal failures.

Although devastating to those who have lost their jobs, as well as investors and shareholders, we shouldn’t be put off by these flops. Personally, I think it’s important to encourage entrepreneurship and risk-taking. Otherwise, economies are likely to stagnate.

That’s why I appreciate what Helium One, the AIM-listed gas explorer, is trying to do.

However, investing in the business is, undoubtedly, risky. Why do I say that? Well, it’s yet to generate any revenue and its primary asset, the Southern Rukwa helium project in Tanzania, is a long way from being commercialised.

Despite this, one broker has set a price target for the stock of 3.6p, valuing the company at over £370m.

Clearly, this is based on future potential rather than what’s happening at the moment. Having said that, the group’s on the verge of selling the first helium from its other project in Colorado. If all goes to plan, carbon dioxide sales will then follow.

The US Galactica-Pegasus project is a 50:50 joint venture, which means the operational risk is shared with another party. However, it’s fairly small and doesn’t have the same potential as Helium One’s mine in Africa. For example, its Australian partner for the Colorado operation, Blue Star Helium, has a market cap of only £15m.

Rising prices

But now appears to be a good time to be in the helium business. Global supply is tightening with demand rising sharply. Last month’s attack on the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar removed a third of the world’s supply in a single morning. This is pushing prices higher.

Critically, the gas has unique cooling properties, which make it essential for certain medical and space exploration applications. It also has uses in the semiconductor and quantum computing industries.

The helium under the ground in Tanzania is, therefore, increasing in value. In June 2025, an independent firm of experts estimated that there’s 1.345bn standard cubic feet (scf) of “proved, possible, and probable” helium at the site. For context, global demand is currently estimated to be 6bn scf.

A more conservative estimate — described as “most likely” in the world of mining — is 296m scf.

What do I think?

If it can continue to raise the necessary cash to fund its exploration activities, find a partner to help ease the financial burden, successfully extract the helium unusually contained within water aquifers, bring the helium to the mine’s surface at the anticipated flow rates, secure customers in the right locations, and overcome the logistical and financial challenges of transporting the gas off the African continent, then I think Helium One will be worth — at least — £370m.

However, these are big obstacles to overcome, which makes an investment at this stage too risky for me. Personally, I think there are better opportunities to consider elsewhere in the mining sector and beyond. However, in the spirit of entrepreneurship and taking risks, I wish the company well.

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But the helium exploration company has just reached a critical milestone that could transform the stock in millionaire-maker for investors brave enough to buy today.

The importance of helium

Beyond inflating party balloons, helium plays a pivotal role in semiconductor manufacturing, fibre optic cabling, quantum computing, and aerospace & defence systems.

So it isn’t surprising that the gas is classified as a critical mineral by both the UK and US governments. And with Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility shut down in the wake of the Iran war, around a third of global helium gas supply has just been cut off, spiking prices.

In this supply vacuum sits Helium One Global. It holds a 100% ownership over the Southern Rukwa Basin in Tanzania, which is estimated to contain up to 138 billion cubic feet of the critical gas.

What does that mean in terms of money? At current prices, that’s enough to fetch between roughly $69bn (£52bn) and $166bn (£125bn).

Compare that to Helium One Global’s current market-cap of £60m, and the stage is set for some millionaire-making returns.

Digging deeper

It’s taken several years, but in February 2026, pump testing confirmed a consistent subsurface fluid flow at its Itumbula West-1 site of the Rukwa project.

This is where things get a little complicated. Flow rates are measured in barrels of water. During the 20-day testing period, water flow rates averaged 15,000 barrels per day with a Gas Water Ratio (GWR) of 0.05 standard cubic meters. In other words, for every cubic meter of water extracted, a total of 0.05 cubic meters of gas was recovered. And of that gas, 5.4% of it was helium.

For anyone crunching the numbers, that means the actual volume of helium recovered was pretty tiny. But it’s not the gas volume that matters here. Instead, it’s the fact that flow rates were six times higher than a year ago and helium concentration was consistent, serving as strong evidence for the presence of a larger connected helium reservoir system.

That’s exactly what the company needed to kick-start formal partnership discussions with industrial gas giants. And it brings the business yet another important step towards commercial production.

Taking a step back

It’s critical to recognise there’s still a long road ahead. Even if everything goes smoothly, full-scale commercial production likely won’t kick off until the early 2030s.

In the meantime, the business remains a loss-making enterprise with a long list of expenses to cover. That means equity dilution is almost a certainty. And the risk is only amplified given that Tanzania is a frontier jurisdiction with an unstable regulatory environment.

So where does that leave investors? Helium One Global’s a classic case of a high-risk, high-reward penny stock. For adventurous investors seeking exposure to the helium market, considering a small position in a well-diversified portfolio could eventually prove lucrative. But for investors who don’t have the stomach for extreme volatility, Helium One is likely a bad fit.

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But repeatedly asking shareholders for more money is inevitable if a company isn’t generating any revenue. How else can it pay the bills? Risk-averse banks are generally reluctant to lend in these circumstances. However, things could soon change.

Good news

The group has a 50% interest in the Galactica-Pegasus project in Colorado, which is about to become fully operational. Here, the price for the first helium has been agreed and the project’s transitioning to a 24/7 operation. Carbon dioxide sales will soon follow.

As distasteful as this might sound, reaching this milestone has been perfectly timed. The bombing of the Ras Laffan gas facility in Qatar — and transport disruption following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — have driven helium prices higher.

Taking advantage

To capitalise on progress in America, new cash of £5m has been raised from a share offer to institutional and private investors. The retail offer was over-subscribed so the company decided to take the opportunity to raise £500,000 more than was originally planned. However, disappointingly for existing shareholders, the shares were issued at a 17.6% discount to the prevailing market price.

In some respects, the directors can pat themselves on the back for getting this far. Gas exploration is time-consuming, technically challenging, and expensive. Yet, since the group’s IPO in December 2020, its market-cap’s risen by around £43m.

However, it’s come at a cost to shareholders who haven’t participated in the numerous fundraising rounds that have seen the group issue nearly 10bn more shares. Someone who invested £1,000 at the time of listing would now see their stake valued at just over £200.

Thousands of miles away

But Galactica-Pegasus is relatively small. A much bigger opportunity lies deep underground in Tanzania. To transform the company’s value, it has to demonstrate that it’s able to extract the helium from water aquifers, transport it cheaply off the African continent, and find some customers.

The latter shouldn’t be too difficult given the unique cooling properties of the gas. Even before the conflict started in the Gulf, there was a worldwide shortage, which kept prices at historically high levels.

And If the group’s able to overcome these challenges, the value of the group could soar. Panmure Liberum has set a price target of 3.6p for the group’s stock. The broker says the “world-class discovery” in Tanzania, along with what’s happening in the US, means the stock’s significantly undervalued.

Next steps

But the trouble is it’s going to cost a lot of money to commercialise the Southern Rukwa project in Africa. Initial estimates have been put at $100m. However, nobody really knows for sure. The company’s seeking a strategic partner to help share the burden but, in my opinion, further dilution for shareholders looks certain.

That’s why the stock’s too risky for me. On balance, I think there’s a better chance of making decent money from a miner already producing.

The post What on earth’s going on with the Helium One share price? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Another thing is that it’s an incredibly volatile penny stock. Depending on which September someone invested in, they could either be up 123% (from 2025) or down 93% (from September 2021).

In theory then, I could make a lot of money if Helium One ever reached its previous highs above 25p.

Finally, this gas exploration firm is hoping to start generating revenue from helium projects. And demand for helium is expected to remain high for years to come due to its use in semiconductor manufacturing, space technology, and quantum computing.

So, should I load up on this penny stock?

Exciting times

The explorer has two projects it’s hoping to extract helium from. In south-west Tanzania, its flagship southern Rukwa Helium Project received a mining licence last year. The site boasts strong sustained helium concentrations of 5.4%, peaking at 9.2% at surface.

Helium One also owns a 50% working interest in the Galactica development project in Colorado, USA. Operated by Australia’s Blue Star Helium, this project is much closer to production.

Indeed, in its interim results published on Thursday (26 March), Helium One said stage one of the Galactica development was completed. Six wells are now connected to the processing facility, and it’s moving swiftly toward 24/7 operations.

Even better, the project secured its first-ever helium sales agreement at spot pricing. This is a huge milestone because it moves Helium One closer from being a promising explorer to a revenue-generating producer.

Negotiations are progressing with multiple parties for long-term helium and CO₂ supply contracts…These early operational steps represent the beginning of a new chapter for Helium One, one in which we expect to generate our first revenues and establish a commercial presence in the global helium market.
Helium One.

Exciting times. So, why did the penny stock crash 14% on the news?

Extreme share dilution

Well, there’s the thorny issue of how to fund the extraction of the gas. And, alongside the report, Helium One announced it has raised £3.5m through an institutional placing, with an additional £1m retail offer currently open.

The problem was that the shares were priced at a discounted 0.6p, and the share price dropped to reflect that.

So, as well as the usual challenges associated with mining projects (cost overruns, delays, and political risks), there’s every chance significantly more cash will need to be raised in future. And this might result in an even lower share price. 

To get a sense of the dilution here, the number of shares has increased by over 2,400% in just five years! Yikes.

Worth a punt?

As mentioned, helium is in high demand and likely to stay that way. To give just one example, huge amounts of the gas are needed to cool quantum computing systems to near-absolute zero temperatures.

Were Helium One to get the US project up and flowing, and find a larger partner to shoulder the cost burden in Tanzania, the stock could seriously take off. Therefore, extremely adventurous investors might want to consider taking a punt.

But speaking personally, this penny stock is too dicey for my own portfolio.

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The share price of Helium One Global (LSE:HE1), the AIM-listed gas development company, is on fire at the moment. Six months ago, the company’s stock was changing hands for 0.34p. Today (6 March), one share is selling for approximately 0.63p. This increase of 85% dwarfs the return of the FTSE AIM All-Share index. Over the same period, it’s returned 2.5%.

Then and now

However, as is typical of penny shares, it hasn’t always been like this. Indeed, when the company listed in December 2020, its share price was 2.84p. Back then, £1,000 would have bought 35,211 shares in the group. Today, it would stretch to 158,730 of them.

With the group having to repeatedly ask shareholders for more money, the number of shares in issue has increased by nearly 9bn. However, Helium One’s stock market valuation of £58.6m is over four times higher than at the time of its IPO.

What’s going on?

Despite this history of dilution, investors appear excited at the moment. The current share price momentum seems to be driven by expectations that the group’s 50:50 joint venture helium project in the US will soon start generating revenue.

The company’s most recent (5 March) update on Galactica-Pegasus says that a “significant commercial milestone” has been reached with “the plant currently filling a tube trailer with refined helium gas for sale under established spot-market arrangements”.

This is a positive development. But it’s unlikely to dramatically change the fortunes of the group. Blue Star Helium, the group’s partner in Colorado, is listed on the Australian stock market. It’s current market cap is just under £7m.

Bigger and better?

However, Helium One has another project on the go, in Tanzania. The Southern Rukwa project is – potentially — much bigger. However, there are numerous obstacles that must be overcome before it’s in a position to start generating revenue.

For a start, the gas is held within water aquifers. And it’s located thousands of miles away from potential customers. More immediately, the group’s going to have to raise further cash — $100m has been suggested – before it’s in a position to flow helium to the earth’s surface on a large scale.

Partnerships with larger companies, offtake agreements with customers, and debt finance have all been floated as possible means of securing the necessary funds. But whatever agreement is secured, I suspect more shares will have to be issued.

Undoubtedly, there’s a big market for helium. Its cooling properties are essential for medical and space exploration applications. And prices are likely to rise further with demand outstripping supply.

However, it will be a while yet before Helium One has to start worrying about finding customers for its African gas. I’m too old to wait for this. I wish the company well and hope it’s successful but there’s too much uncertainty around the viability of its project in Tanzania. In my opinion, there are many less risky opportunities to consider elsewhere.  

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No change

When the group listed at the end of 2020, it had already been in existence for over five years. At the time of its IPO, it said it had been set up to “actively pursue the exploration, commercial development and monetisation of a discovery-ready, non-hydrocarbon associated helium rich gas composition within the Tanzanian Rift Valley in East Africa”.

Well, it’s still doing that. The group’s signed an exclusivity agreement with the country’s government which, in return, now has a 17% stake in the Southern Rukwa project.  

The shares were listed at 2.84p, which means anyone investing £15,000 at the time would have been able to buy 528,169 of them. The group was valued at £14.1m.

Today (4 March), the group’s market-cap is just over £50m and its shares are changing hands for 0.58p. As a result, an initial investment of £15,000 would now be worth only £3,063. Ouch!

Since listing, the company’s repeatedly had to raise money. As a result, it’s issued another 5.72bn shares, which has diluted the shareholdings of early-stage investors. Some of the fund-raising has been restricted to institutional investors only so not everyone’s been able to participate, even if they wanted to.

But the need for additional cash shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone. At the time of listing, the company said it will “likely require additional financing in order to carry out its gas and associated liquids exploration and development activities”.

Without any assets generating money, it’s typical of pre-revenue companies. And unavoidable.

More of the same

Yet the company’s going to need more cash if it’s to start producing gas in Tanzania. Initial estimates are around $100m. The company’s in talks with potential backers but further shareholder dilution looks inevitable to me.

Since its IPO, the group’s acquired a 50% interest in another helium project in Colorado. Production should commence soon, although it’s a relatively small operation.

Helium has many unusual characteristics, which is pushing demand higher. It has the lowest boiling point of any gas, which makes it particularly valuable in the health and space exploration industries. If the group can get large volumes out of the ground then shareholders are likely to be well rewarded.

However, the gas in Tanzania is found in water aquifers, which Helium One’s described as a “unique play”. Transporting helium from East Africa to the world’s markets is also going to be logistically challenging. The continent also has a reputation for economic and political instability, which could prove to be a problem.

Personally, I’d rather invest in a mining company that’s already overcome these obstacles. Fortunately, there are plenty to choose from and — with the price of precious metals soaring over the past couple of years — many are doing very well.

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Helium One Global (LSE: HE1) is one of those stocks. It’s already up 29% this year after the budding gas ‘startup’ announced significant progress at its Southern Rukwa facility in Tanzania.

So what’s driving the growth — and will it continue?

Notable developments

Helium One’s main well, Itumbula West‑1, produces helium at concentrations over 5% — many thousands of times above normal background levels in the air. In February, it announced the successful completion of pump testing at the site, bringing in the equivalent of 16,400 barrels a day.

This is a huge step that’s taken years to come to fruition, allowing the company to progress dicsussions with potential industry partners.

It also recently purchased a 50% stake in the Galactica‑Pegasus project in Colorado, USA. This well’s much closer to production and could bring in early cash from both helium and carbon dioxide sales if drilling goes to plan.

Why helium?

Helium may not carry the same weight as LPG gas but it’s still a big deal. Think of things like MRI scanners, microchips, and space tech — they all need helium. These high-tech-use cases provide long-term visibility in terms of demand, helping ensure revenues remain strong.

If Helium One can turn its Tanzanian discovery into a producing field and Colorado gets up and running, it’ll be selling into a market with strong and consistent demand.

Financials

For now, Helium One remains unprofitable, spending all its funding on drilling and testing. In 2025, it reported a pre‑tax loss of £4.25m – although this was up from a loss of £6.9m in 2024. 

Net assets rose to roughly £39.3m thanks to heavy spending on drilling and exploration, with around £6.13m in financing cash at year‑end.

Encouragingly, it holds almost no debt, with a very comfortable quick ratio of 6.19. However, on several occasions it has raised funds through share dilution, suggesting difficulty in securing financing.

Not for the faint-hearted

Like most penny stocks, Helium One has experienced notable volatility, often driven by share issuance. It also faces the usual risks that come along with exploration and development companies. There’s no guarantee yet that any of its projects will deliver on time, on budget, or at all. Wells can disappoint, costs can blow out, and technical issues can delay production.

And with no steady income yet, it depends on financing to continue — or further share issuance, which hurts the share price. 

These are all fairly common risks that come with most penny stocks. But as they say: ‘no risk, no reward’.

The bottom line

For UK investors, Helium One sits firmly in the ‘high-risk/high-reward category. There’s no dividend, it lacks stable earnings, and any small hiccup could derail future profits.

But if you’re comfortable with the risk and can accept the chance of losing money, the pay off could be spectacular.

On the face of things, it appears to be a well-run company operating in a high-demand, niche sector. That alone gives it lots of potential.

As such, I think it’s worth considering but only as a small allocation in a much larger, adequately-diversified portfolio.

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What’s causing this sudden interest in the relatively unknown gas explorer? Let’s take a closer look.

A finger in two pies

Helium One has two projects on the go.

The most advanced is its Galactica-Pegasus joint venture in Colorado. And this appears to be the catalyst for much of the £19m increase in the group’s market cap over the past four weeks or so. 

The company recently said that “integrated plant operations” have been scheduled for the end of the month as it gears up for production later in the year. Significantly, it also said: “Arrangements have been made for spot sales of helium and discussions in respect of long-term contracts with both helium and CO₂ off-takers are progressing.”

But this is a relatively small operation. In March 2025, the group said it expects “an average of approximately US$2m per annum will accrue to the company over a period of five years.” This is a revenue figure, not profit. For context, during the year ended 30 June 2025, the group’s total administrative expenses were $4.1m.

However, the estimate excludes any benefit from the sale of carbon dioxide (CO₂). And there could be further undiscovered deposits of both gases.

But I suspect shareholders believe a potentially bigger prize lies elsewhere.

Miles away

That’s because the group owns 83% of the Southern Rukwa Project in Tanzania.

Here, further testing using an electrical submersible pump has resulted in water flow rates “exceeding expectations”. This is important because the helium isn’t conventional dry gas. Instead, it’s found in water aquifers, which the group acknowledges is “unique”. And I think this casts some doubt on its recoverability.

However, if it’s able to overcome this challenge, there’s enormous potential according to an independent estimate of reserves. But given the uncertainty typical of the industry, it’s normal to quote a wide range of figures.

For context, although there isn’t a spot price for the gas, I’ve seen reports suggesting helium sells for up to $1,000 per thousand standard cubic feet depending on its grade. Due to its special characteristics, in particular its cooling properties, demand for helium is rising, which could drive prices higher.

The last time I wrote about Helium One I was contacted by an industry expert claiming that it’s not “technically or financially possible” to transport compressed helium by sea from Africa using ISO tanks. I put this to a representative of the company who agreed. But they told me that “helium can also be transported as a compressed gas in tube trailers by ship”.

No thanks!

But I don’t want to invest.

The company says around $100m will be needed to commercialise production. I suspect shareholders will, therefore, be further diluted. This isn’t a criticism. It’s a fact of life for pre-revenue companies. From June 2020 to June 2025, Helium One increased its number of shares in issue by over 6bn (3,417%).

There are loads of mining companies that are already successfully producing and, more importantly, fully funded. On this basis, I think there are less risky opportunities to consider elsewhere.

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Although production at the Galactica-Pegasus project in Colorado — in which it has a 50% interest — is due to commence in the fourth quarter, it’s a relatively small discovery.

It’s the group’s mine in Tanzania that really counts. The legal paperwork, including confirmation of the government’s 17% minority stake, is expected to be signed shortly.  

Then the hard work – including raising the estimated $75m-$100m needed to commercialise production – will start.

But I want to know what the helium’s worth. Only when this question’s been answered is it possible to understand how the company should be valued.

So here goes…

Reserves

Mining’s a complicated business. And a report from an international reserves auditor — looking at the potential of the Rukwa mine — confirms this.

Amid the plethora of numbers, the one I’m focusing on is the estimated contingent resource. This is defined as gas that’s “potentially recoverable from known accumulations… not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies”.

In the case of Helium One, I think it’s fair to say that one such uncertainty is the fact that the helium isn’t conventional dry gas. Instead, it’s found in water aquifers. The group’s boss says this is a “unique play”, which casts some doubt on its recoverability. 

I’m going to use what’s described as the “best” or “most realistic” estimate of helium reserves. To meet this definition, there has to be at least a 50% chance this amount will be exceeded.

Finally, I’m only considering the helium that’s likely to be extracted during the initial 10-year licence period. After all, there’s no guarantee that the present arrangement will be extended.

Based on these assumptions, it’s estimated there’s 78,668 Mscf (thousand standard cubic feet) of gas potentially available.

Price

To work out what this could be worth, we need to value helium. Presently, market conditions are favourable to sellers. The unique properties of the gas, especially when it comes to cooling, make it particularly useful in the medical industry.

Demand’s currently outstripping supply. And it cannot be manufactured. Therefore, prices should remain high.

But one of the curiosities of the helium market is that there’s no spot price. Instead, contracts are negotiated individually. I’ve seen price estimates of $200-$2,500/Mscf.

Let’s assume $1,000/Mscf is typical. On this basis, the gas is worth $78.7m. Remember, this is the retail value. It doesn’t take into account the cost of production nor the government’s share.

Maybe this explains the group’s lacklustre share price.

But…

However, I think it could take off if investors were given compelling evidence that more gas could be extracted.

In a best-case scenario, the prospective resource — defined as “potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects” — could be as high as 3,227,556 Mscf. This includes helium outside the licence area.

This would have a retail value over $3.2bn, dwarfing Helium One’s market-cap of £58m. And it could be higher if my price assumption is too low.

But given all this uncertainty, making an investment would be too risky for me.

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After several months of talks, the company was able to confirm that negotiations concerning its mining licence application in Tanzania have been finalised.

It has agreed to establish a joint venture with the government, which will take a 17% stake in a newly incorporated subsidiary of Helium One.

Formal execution of the paperwork is expected shortly.

Commenting on the news, James Smith, Chairman of the firm, said: “This is a pivotal period in the company’s increasing maturity and growth. The last 18 months has seen exceptional progress as we have met a series of challenges with vigour and professionalism.”

To be honest, I’m a little surprised at the market’s reaction. On 31 March, it said it had accepted the terms of a licence offer. It had also paid the first annual fee of £960k.

In my mind, the licence was never in doubt.

Anyway, today’s announcement is clearly a step in the right direction on the long road to commercialising helium production in Tanzania.

Other developments

And the news comes a day after the group announced that it had concluded the development drilling programme at its Galactica-Pegasus project, in which it holds a 50% interest.

It said the results confirm “the production potential and near-term monetisation opportunity”. Revenue from the sale of helium from the mine in Colorado is expected in the fourth quarter.

But this project is a relatively small one and it’s unlikely to significantly increase the market cap of the group. In my opinion, it’s the Rukwa project in Tanzania that really matters.

The hard work now begins

With all this good news, the group can now set about raising the money that it needs to generate revenue from its operations in Africa.

To help its case, it will be able to point out to banks, other debt providers, industry partners and shareholders that the market for helium is growing steadily.

Also, it will be able to explain that there’s no spot price for the gas. This means individual contracts are negotiated between buyers and sellers. And with the gas regularly in short supply, this works to the advantage of the producer.

Helium is predominantly used in the medical industry where it helps cool the magnets used in MRI scanners. It’s also necessary for the manufacture of semiconductors.

But without raising some cash, the gas will remain below ground. Indeed, in May, to pay a supplier it had to issue shares in lieu of cash.

Looking ahead

However, the company’s now on the front foot and once the agreement with the government of Tanzania is signed, it will be able to provide some additional security to a potential funder in return for some cash.

But I don’t want to invest.

It’s still too risky for me. A lender’s likely to require some form of equity to further de-risk their exposure. This would mean dilution for shareholders.

And mining is an incredibly difficult industry in which to operate. There are all sorts of safety, environmental, economic and geopolitical challenges that have to be overcome.

For these reasons, I’d rather look elsewhere.

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