The Aston Martin (LSE: AML) share price has returned 45% over the past 12 months. However, since February, the stock has fallen by nearly 10%, even though the outlook for the economy has improved during this period.
So, what has been going on with the stock? Why has it underperformed over the past few months, despite its improving outlook?
Aston Martin share price outlook
Last year, the luxury car manufacturer came close to the edge. It only survived by raising hundreds of millions of pounds from its investors.
Since then, the group’s new management team has been working flat out to stabilise the enterprise. The good news is, it would appear as if these efforts are beginning to yield results.
According to the company’s latest trading update, which covered the period to the end of March, revenues in the first quarter of 2021 increased 134% year-on-year. What’s more, the corporation’s overall operating loss declined to just £15.3m, from last year’s £68m.
Aston Martin is also making progress on its ambitions to streamline the manufacturing process and reduce costs. Management aims to hit £2bn of revenue by 2024/25 with £500m of adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA). To meet this goal, the group will have to increase output to 10,000 vehicles, up from 6,000 in 2021.
These are ambitious targets. I think the main reason why the Aston Martin share price has been moving sideways recently is that the market does not believe the company can meet these goals.
Indeed, the group has repeatedly overpromised and underdelivered in the past. These mistakes have wreaked havoc with its balance sheet and financial position. As a result, Aston Martin has gone bust seven times in its century-long history. Last year, it nearly failed once again.
Bull and bear argument
The way I see it, the Aston Martin share price will do one of two things over the next five years. If the company hits its forecasts, and there’s no reason to suggest that it won’t at this stage, the stock could rise in value as investors buy into the growth story.
On the other hand, the company could go back to its old ways. Unfortunately, this may mean it misses its growth targets and may even result in another cash call.
Right now, I think it’s impossible to say which course the Aston Martin share price will take. However, I’m encouraged by the group’s executive chairman, Lawrence Stroll, who has a history of successfully turning around luxury brands.
Based on Stroll’s reputation alone, I would buy the stock. Still, I would only build a small position in the business due to the speculative nature of this investment.
The Aston Martin share price has potential, but considering the company’s history of failure, I’m sceptical about its future. Considering the stock’s recent performance, it seems to me that the rest of the market holds the same opinion.
