Since going public in 2010, Tesla stock has gone up by a mind-boggling 26,603%. Few shares better illustrate the power of long-term investing.
Yet with a colossal $1.19trn market cap today, Tesla’s days of eye-popping returns are probably in the rear-view mirror. As a result, investors hoping to find the next massive winner will likely need to look elsewhere.
Another AV play
One under-the-radar Nasdaq stock I think has enormous potential is Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR). Like Tesla, the firm’s a leader in the autonomous vehicle (AV) space.
Indeed, one of Aurora’s co-founders, Sterling Anderson, previously led the team that delivered Tesla Autopilot. Both tech companies believe that powerful AI software will revolutionise transportation.
However, while Tesla is focused on robotaxis, Aurora is having success with autonomous trucking. Its Aurora Driver self-driving system is designed to integrate directly into existing freight operations, allowing trucks to operate almost around the clock.
Being a carrier is a game of margins and if autonomy can work around the clock, it will be key to growing our customers’ businesses…The era of superhuman logistics has arrived.
Co-founder and CEO Chris Urmson
Scaling up quickly
There are a number of things I like here. One is that co-founder Chris Urmson helped build Google’s self-driving programme, so there’s definitely solid industry pedigree.
Another attractive factor is that the global truck freight market is absolutely massive, valued at about $4trn. And there should be no shortage of demand because, without mandatory rest breaks, Aurora Driver can cut transit times nearly in half.
The company is working with industry heavyweights like FedEx Freight, Schneider, Hirschbach, Toyota, and Volvo Trucks. Aurora only deployed its first driverless truck a year ago. But at the end of January, its software had facilitated 250,000 driverless miles, with a perfect safety record.
It ended 2025 with 10 trucks on the road, navigating rain, fog, and heavy wind. By the end of 2026, it expects to have more than 200 in operation, with routes extending across the Sun Belt in the south of the US.
There’s a nine-hour video on YouTube of its driverless trucks cruising down public highways. I salute you if you can stay awake till the end of the journey!
Risks abound
Now, I do have some concerns. First, there’s the elephant in the room — a terrible motorway accident involving a driverless juggernaut. That could set the company back years.
Also, the $9.8bn market cap is quite substantial, considering the loss-making company only expects revenue of $14m-$16m this year. So there’s a lot of optimism already baked into the valuation.
That said, the firm thinks it has enough liquidity to achieve positive free cash flow in 2028. Forecasts put revenue at almost $700m by then, highlighting how fast Aurora is expected to grow.
Another big winner?
Currently, it’s too early to tell what margins will look like and how much more money Aurora might need to raise. That makes it a high-risk stock, for sure.
However, Aurora Driver could solve driver shortages and underpin massive efficiency savings for freight firms. If it becomes the foundational operating system for the enormous US trucking industry, this could become a monster future winner.
With the stock down 50% in a little over a year, I might have a little nibble in May.
