Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW) shares have been in terrible form for a while. Anyone who bought 12 months ago and kept the faith would be looking at a paper loss of over 20%. Those who loaded up five years ago will have seen their stake more than halve in value.
Based on this performance, I’m not surprised if new investors are reluctant to get involved. But are we getting to a point where they might be considered a bargain?
Serious headwinds
It’s not an accident that the UK housebuilder is out of favour with the market. The last five years haven’t exactly been plain-sailing for our economy. We’ve gone from the shock of the pandemic to a cost-of-living crisis to concerns over armed conflict in Europe and the Middle East. All of these developments had or are having an impact on interest rates, building costs and, ultimately, buyer appetite.
Recent results don’t exactly inspire confidence. Back in March, the £3bn cap forecast lower profit for 2026. Somewhere in the region of £400m is now expected. This is down from the £420.6m delivered in 2025.
Of course, this was just an estimate at the time. But I’m not sure the firm’s outlook has improved since. A swift end to the Iran-US conflict looks increasingly unlikely, meaning that oil and energy prices are likely to remain high. This hardly bodes well for the next trading statement, due on 28 April. It might also help to explain why the High Wycombe-based business is proving fairly popular among short sellers.
But is it absurd to even contemplate adding it to a stock market shopping list?
It’s not all bad
I’m not so sure. As things stand, Taylor Wimpey shares change hands at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11. That’s not dirt cheap but nor does it imply that the market is ignoring recent events. Rival Persimmon trades on a similar valuation. Barratt Redrow is very slightly less expensive.
The forecast dividend yield of 8.8% further sweetens the investment case. For comparison, the FTSE 250 index in which the company features yields 3.3%.
Yes, those cash distributions are never nailed on and signs of a further deterioration in trading could force CEO Jennie Daly to make another cut. Right now, it’s anticipated that the total dividend will barely be covered by anticipated profit.
Cut or not, whatever is received could still be regarded as sufficient compensation for being asked to wait for a recovery. Moreover, Taylor Wimpey doesn’t look financially stressed as things stand. It’s balance sheet still boasted a net cash position at the end of the last financial year.
Taylor Wimpey shares are worth considering
Things have been torrid for holders and, barring news of a proper peace deal, could stay that way. However, the long-term tailwinds remain in place. Put simply, the UK requires more quality homes to be built. As one of the biggest players, I struggle to believe this company won’t play a role in meeting that demand.
My view is that this is a business that’s under pressure; but it’s not broken. The best time to ponder buying a cyclical stock is surely when the economic chips are down. As such, I reckon the shares are worthy of a closer look.
