It’s no secret that the Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) share price relies heavily on artificial intelligence (AI) spending. As the chipmaker that powers most datacentres, its fortunes are closely tied to the technology’s success.
But with 30%-50% of planned US data warehouses now delayed or scrapped, how exposed is the world’s largest company?
Estimating the impact
The question now is not just whether the AI bubble’s cooling, but how much damage that could do to Nvidia’s growth story?
On the plus side, the business is still firing on all cylinders. In fiscal 2026, it pulled in $215.9bn of revenue, up 65% from the year before. Datacentre sales alone hit $62.3bn in the last quarter, making up over 90% of total revenue. That’s not just growth — it’s dominance in the AI hardware market.
Profit margins are also impressive, with datacentre gross margins running above 70% in recent quarters. The company generates huge free cash flow, which it can reinvest in new chips, supply lines and partnerships. That all underpins the current valuation.
But the bubble isn’t the only issue.
Priced for success
Even before the talk of cancelled data centers, Nvidia’s share price was already expensive. The stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 38, and its market-cap of roughly $4.58trn makes it the most valuable in the world.
But that valuation assumes datacentre demand keeps rising, not stabilising or falling. If nearly half of planned US datacenters are delayed or cancelled, as reported, that could decimate growth expectations. Power constraints and supply bottlenecks compounded by local opposition mean some projects may never even leave the drawing board.
High‑profile examples include the expansion of OpenAI’s Stargate project in Texas, which has reportedly been halted due to high costs and limited demand.
Better options?
Considering the already stratospheric valuation and the risk of slower datacentre spending, Nvidia’s appeal is weakening. A big dip in orders or margins could hurt the share price, especially given how much optimism is priced in.
So for investors looking to shift away from AI, what else looks appealing in the US right now? S&P 500 leaders such as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Meta are at risk from similar AI exposure. Even supermarket giant Walmart has become heavily reliant on AI in the past year.
But there is one under-the-radar US tech stock that looks attractive right now: Autodesk. Famous for its design software AutoCAD, it also develops software for engineering, transport industrial machinery and digital media.
With a return on equity (ROE) of 39.7% and a forward P/E ratio of 17.6, it’s both highly profitable and undervalued. The price has slipped 15% in the past year but revenue’s up 17.8% and the average 12-month analyst forecast eyes a 51.9% price increase.
I’m not suggesting it’ll be the next Nvidia, but with the AI bubble looking stretched, it may be a safer option.
Final thoughts
For a cautious investor, the answer isn’t necessarily buy or sell, rather smart allocation and diversification. Nvidia’s still worth considering, but rather as a satellite holding than a core portfolio pick.
Meanwhile, more stable, less AI-exposed options like AutoDesk can help reduce volatility risk.
