The past 12 months have highly profitable for Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) shareholders. The Lloyds share price has surged by 48.7% in the last year, sending this stock to heights not seen since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007/09.
Lloyds jumps, then slumps
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After years of falls and countless false dawns, Lloyds shares seem to have some momentum. They are also up 21.5% over six months and have soared by 135.3% over five years. Even better, the above returns exclude cash dividends, which the Black Horse bank pays out by the billions of pounds.
What’s more, the bank’s shares have been even higher this year, peaking at 114.6p on 4 February. However, they started to slide before dropped steeply after the US attacked Iran on 27 February. On 23 March, they bottomed out at 87.62p, down 30.8% from their 2026 high.
What’s surprised me most about the Lloyds share price this calendar year is its volatility. As a British bank with strong positions in home mortgages, business loans and credit cards, its income streams are fairly stable. Then again, the group is seen as a bellwether for the wider UK economy, so its shares can be hit by panic selling during periods of instability and insecurity.
What next?
As I write, the Lloyds share price stands at 102.08p, valuing this big British bank at £59.8bn. This ranks Lloyds at #14 in the elite FTSE 100 index. I worked for this group in the late 1990s, later witnessing it on the brink of collapse in 2008. However, I now regard Lloyds and its stock as big, beautiful…and maybe even boring?
On 17 December 2025, I predicted that the shares would breach the £1 mark, writing, “Nevertheless, I’m fairly sure that the shares will eventually exceed 100p next year, the only question for me being when. But I suspect there will be some volatility on the way, as often happens when shares rise strongly and steeply”. The share price duly closed at 100.3p on 6 January, hitting this milestone very early in 2026.
A week later, on 24 December, I made another forecast: “I think it’s possible — but not certain — that Lloyds shares will exceed £1.25 in 2026.” They got within 8.3% of this mark on 4 February, but now lie 18.3% short. To hit this target, the stock will need to rise a further 22.5% from its current level.
Again, I believe it is possible — but by no means certain — that Lloyds shares could see 125p in 2025. Still, I won’t hold my breath, because the shares are no longer a bargain-bin buy. They trade on almost 14.8 times trailing earnings, delivering an earnings yield below 6.8%. This means that their dividend yield of 3.6% a year is covered 1.9 times by historic earnings. That seems a decent margin of safety.
For me, Lloyds shares are neither a screaming buy nor a clear sell at current price levels. Hence, I will hang onto my family’s shareholding — bought for 43.5p a share in mid-2022 — while awaiting Lloyds’ next quarterly results on 29 April!
Which other shares are making waves in markets? Read on to find out…
