I don’t hold HSBC (LSE: HSBA) shares. That looks like a mistake on my part and I’d like to put it right. So what have I missed?
An awful lot lately. The HSBC share price is up 82% over the last 12 months and a mighty 206% over five years. Investors have received dividends throughout and today, the trailing yield is 4.2%. That’s expected to climb steadily, with analysts forecasting a yield of 4.5% this year, rising to 4.9% in 2027.
The board has also treated shareholders to generous share buybacks, which totalled $6bn in 2025 alone. It can afford to do so, having made a pre-tax profit of $29.9bn last year. That mighty sum was actually 7% below 2024’s record $32.3bn. Although that dip was mostly due to one-off impairments, legal provisions and restructuring costs.
FTSE 100 banking stocks fly
HSBC may be listed on the FTSE 100 but now earns three quarters of its profits from Asia. It has a massive growth opportunity in emerging markets such as China and, increasingly, the Middle East. That allows investors to diversify from UK-focused FTSE 100 banks such as Lloyds and NatWest.
When I set up my Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) three years ago, I decided I had space for one FTSE 100 bank and played safe with Lloyds. I’m not unhappy with that decision, it’s done well. As have all the big banks lately, as high interest rates allow them to widen net interest margins. These measure the difference between what they pay savers and charge borrowers, and is a key profit metric.
Margins were expected to narrow this year but war in Iran looks like driving inflation and interest rates back up. The downside is that the energy price shock could hit demand for banking products such as investments, loans and mortgages, potentially leading to a surge in bad business and customer loans.
While the Chinese economy had been booming for years, it does seem to be slowing, while the property and shadow banking sectors are remain a worry.
Dividends climb, buyback paused
Also, HSBC’s a huge global operation, and there’s a risk it becomes too sprawling. The board spent $1bn in restructuring costs last year, and has to work hard to make sure expected synergies really do come through. So while it’s a compelling opportunity, risks remain. These include geopolitical as the US and China struggle for dominance.
It’s also worth pointing out that share buybacks have been put on pause for nine months to fund the purchase of the remaining 36.5% stake in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Bank.
Perhaps my biggest concern, aside from the wider threat of the Iran war, is that after such a strong run, the shares are likely to idle. But with a modest forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6, I wouldn’t say they look overpriced. Worried investors can always ease their concerns by drip feeding money into the stock rather than going all-in.
But I think HSBC shares are well worth considering with a long-term view, and plan to add them to my SIPP once I have cash to hand. And about time too.
