Since April 2016, Games Workshop Group’s (LSE:GAW) shares have beaten all others on the FTSE 100. Anyone clever enough to have invested £20,000 at the time would now (13 April) be sitting on a shareholding worth over £782,000. That’s a mind-boggling return of 3,810%.
And this excludes dividends. For its past 10 financial years, “the largest and the most successful hobby miniatures company in the world” (its own words), has declared payouts of £23.65 per share. Include these and the total return goes up by over £97,000.
However, for those that didn’t invest, is it too late? Could the stock be one of the best performers over the next 10 years? Let’s explore.
Then and now
Compared to a decade ago, the group — most famous for its Warhammer franchise – is operating on a different scale. At the time of publishing its results for the year ended 29 May 2016 (FY16), it was valued at around £150m. Now, it has a market-cap of around £6.3bn.
Revenue has increased four-fold over the period. Earnings per share has soared more than 13 times.
Some of its success can be attributed to various licensing deals. During FY16, it earned £5.9m in royalites. In FY25, it was £52.5m. These are highly lucrative as they have no associated direct costs. Impressively, the group reported a 78.8% gross profit in FY25.
On the expensive side
However, as is common for a group that’s grown so rapidly, its shares aren’t cheap. They trade at around 33 times forecast earnings for FY26.
This is a double-edged sword. Yes, it’s a sign that the company’s highly rated by investors. But it also means any slowdown in earnings or a failure to live up to expectations, could see a sharp drop in its share price.
Of concern, given the current uncertain economic outlook, disposable incomes could be squeezed leaving less left over for hobbies.
What next?
I suspect it’s highly unlikely the group’s success over the past 10 years is going to be repeated over the next decade. Going forward, I reckon it’s likely to be more of a steady performer. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s too late to take a stake.
A well-run company with a strong brand will, generally speaking, continue to deliver over the long term. I have no doubt that Games Workshop will be able to sell more to existing customers. Whenever the group launches something new, it’s enthusiastically received by its passionate fan base.
But it also needs to find new buyers. That’s why I think its ongoing TV project with Amazon could be a gamechanger, although it might not be launched until 2028.
Final thoughts
When discussing the group, there’s often a debate as to whether it’s a niche business or a mainstream player. I suspect most people’s opinions are shaped by whether they buy its products. But I don’t think this really matters: the group’s impressive track record – and huge loyal following — shows it’s very good at what it does.
Importantly, it’s vertically integrated. This means it controls everything from the design to the distribution of its models. Impressively, it also has no debt on its balance sheet. Undoubtedly, Games Workshop is a British success story. I reckon it’s still a stock to consider.
