FTSE 100 movements don’t often keep me awake, but Thursday’s (19 March) did. The blue-chip index plunged 2.5% and plenty of stocks in my Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) suffered even bigger drops. Unusually for me, I woke in the early hours, worrying about what happened next. It didn’t help that the last thing I read before bed was an alarming article warning of dire consequences if the Iran war didn’t end quickly.
To calm myself, I determined that when markets opened I’d check for any stocks I might sell to take some risk off the table. And guess what? I didn’t find a single one. I thought all of them were attractive, with a long-term view.
That fits with our strategy at The Motley Fool. We believe that short-term market volatility is a good time to buy, and the wrong time to sell. I didn’t sell anything, so should I use the dip to buy more shares?
Blue-chip bargains everywhere
There are plenty of FTSE 100 stocks I’d love to buy today. Many are much cheaper than just a month ago. Not because of poor results or company-specific disasters, but purely because of geopolitical events. Ten blue-chips have crashed 20% or more in the last month. Dozens have suffered a correction of more than 10%. Most look significantly better value, with higher dividend yields too.
The biggest faller of them all is housebuilder Barratt Redrow (LSE: BTRW). Its shares are down around 30% in a month.
All the housebuilders are struggling right now. Rising oil prices threaten to push inflation higher, which could drive up both interest and mortgage rates. The Bank of England held base rates at 3.75% on Thursday, but markets expect two or three hikes this year. Before the Middle East conflict, they were pricing in two or three cuts.
Higher borrowing costs will hit affordability, squeezing demand, sales and house prices. Inflation and supply chain disruption could push up the cost of building materials, squeezing margins.
Barratt Redrow shares look cheap
Half-year results, published on 11 February, were solid but hardly exciting. They showed total home completions up 4.7% to 7,444. Adjusted aggregated operating profits dipped 0.3% to £210.2m. Now everything’s up in the air.
The Barratt Redrow share price slump has pushed its trailing dividend yield to 6.65%. But investors have to ask whether that payout is sustainable if the downturn drags on.
With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 10.5, the stock looks great value. It has a solid balance sheet, with net cash of £173.9m. It’s worth considering with a long-term view, but buying today takes nerve. If the crisis deepens, Barratt Redrow shares could fall further. If tensions ease, they could rebound. Which will it be? Nobody knows.
For me, the only rational response is to drip-feed money into bargain stocks like this one, while keeping some cash in reserve in case the market falls further. Always with a view to holding for the long-term. There are plenty more FTSE 100 stocks that look attractive at today’s reduced prices.
