At the start of 2025, the FTSE 100 stood at 8,200. At the end of 2025, the index had risen to 9,900. The 22% gain was a monster return and did not even include some of the highest dividends available worldwide. Many onlookers were calling it a one-off, suggesting that it was a brief reversion to the average after a few years of underperformance.
What happened next? The Footsie proved them all wrong! The index kept rising, up another 10% in only a couple of months! Its 1 March total of 10,900 came within a stone’s throw of the big 11,000 mark. How did it get there so quickly? Can it keep going? And are we perhaps in for a FTSE 100 golden age?
New trends
Before I get into things, I will say that the recently erupted conflict in Iran has taken a dent to the FTSE 100’s recent gains. The tumult could undo all that good work, or it could simply be a temporary blip. Because of the uncertainty of these kind of geopolitical events, I’m going to leave discussion of it out. Anyway…
The great run of the last two years can be explained very simply: investors like the look of the FTSE 100 more. Its old economy stocks – sometimes disparagingly called dinosaur stocks – combined with large dividends is looking attractive in this brave new world of artificial intelligence.
One neologism to be aware of is HALO or ‘Heavy Assets Low Obsolescence’. These HALO stocks are, as the name suggests, unlikely to be consigned to the dustbin of history by AI and possess substantial valuable assets.
The FTSE 100 is strongly weighted with HALO stocks like banks and miners. Conversely, the few tech stocks that might go obsolete like Rightmove or RELX are the ones dragging down the index of late.
There is no guarantee either way that this trend will continue. But if the developments in AI continue apace, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see more FTSE 100 outperformance in the years to come.
Double-edged
One stock that fits the HALO criteria is Anglo-American (LSE: AAL). The mining giant is unlikely to have its lunch eaten by advances in artificial intelligence, and indeed new technologies and their demand for metals might spur the company forward in the years ahead.
Mining is a cyclical sector. Much of a firm’s success comes down to the ever-changing prices of its commodities. And many observers are predicting copper to be in demand over the next decade. Anglo-American books around half of its earnings from the metal. This has contributed to a share price that is up 60% in the last year.
This is a double-edged sword, however. Copper looks hot now, partly because of its role in green technologies like solar panels or electrical wiring. But who knows what the future holds? Lowering demand for copper would have the opposite effect.
The last word? No one can say whether this strong FTSE 100 runup is a brief episode or a sign of things to come. But the index is filled with these kinds of HALO stocks that aren’t going anywhere. I think Anglo-American is one that is worth considering.
