Greggs (LSE: GRG) shares have been under pressure since the start of 2025. With the bakery chain set to release its full-year results for the year ended 27 December on Tuesday (3 March), I’ve picked out a few critical things to watch for investors considering buying in.
Setting the scene
There’s no doubt it’s been a difficult trading period with the UK economy not at its strongest.
The company is expected to announce a year-on-year decline in pre-tax profits amid subdued consumer confidence and challenges from widespread use of appetite-suppression medications.
That comes after a January update in which management said Q4 sales had increased 7.4% year on year and that the full-year results were to be in line with previous guidance.
Greggs shares have struggled of late, falling 24% in the past 12 months to 1,582p as I write ahead of Monday’s market open.
Inflationary pressure on margins
The first thing investors should watch closely is the company’s profit margins
Management has been vocal about its pricing strategy, balancing the need to cover costs without alienating its core customer base. If tomorrow’s results show that the company has maintained or even expanded its operating margin it could signal a pathway to further profitability.
Conversely, any significant margin compression could raise questions about whether further price rises are needed, potentially denting demand.
The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) figure will be particularly revealing here. EBITDA strips out non-operational noise and shows the true profitability of the core bakery business.
Store expansion and like-for-like growth
The second critical metric is the balance between new store openings and like-for-like sales growth.
The company has been on an aggressive expansion drive, opening dozens of new outlets each year. But the real test of underlying demand is whether existing stores are also increasing sales.
Investors will also want to hear updated guidance on the store rollout plan which aims to deliver 120 net new stores in 2026. Any scaling back of expansion targets could be interpreted as a loss of confidence in the growth opportunity.
Consumer confidence and the outlook
The third factor to watch is management’s commentary on consumer behaviour and the outlook for the year ahead. With household budgets still under pressure, any signs that customers are trading down or visiting less frequently would be concerning.
If the business sees strong demand for new products and continued footfall I imagine that will be well received by the market.
The case for caution
The results are worth watching for those investors who currently own or are considering buying Greggs shares.
The company’s share price has been under pressure and the operating environment is challenging. However, January’s update provided some hope of a clearer pathway forward and potential profitability gains.
If we see stronger demand, growing margins, and a positive management tone, I think the Greggs share price could climb as a result and may be worth considering.
