Barclays (LSE: BARC) shares have had a tremendous run. They’re up 50% over 12 months and 185% over five years. That’s outstanding, although not unusual among the big UK banks lately. Rising interest rates have boosted the gap between what they pay savers and charge borrowers, and profits have flowed across the board. Can this continue?
Maybe not as interest rates are drifting lower, squeezing margins. The Bank of England could trim the base rate to 3.5% on 19 March, with one or two more cuts to follow this year. There are other worries. JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon warned last week about the risk of rising bad loans across the banking sector. He also flagged the disruptive impact of AI, arguing that a tougher credit cycle could emerge if businesses struggle.
The result? The Barclays share price dipped 7.5% in February. That would have reduced a £15k investment to £12,875, a paper loss of £1,125. It’s not a huge drop but came at a time when the FTSE 100 as a whole climbed a thumping 7%, edging towards 11,000 for the first time.
Barclays was already at the top of my shopping list. Now I’m even more tempted to buy it.
FTSE 100 buying opportunity?
What previously held me back was fear that the shares had outrun themselves. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio had crept above 15 after the strong rally.
That was before full-year results on 10 February. Barclays reported a 13% in 2025 profits to a record £9.1bn. Management also unveiled a £1bn share buyback and plans to return £15bn to shareholders over the next two years. That strong performance has pulled the P/E back to 10.5. At that level, the shares look far highly appealing.
I thought banking might be a clear beneficiary of AI, but Dimon has a point. If it savages other industries, banks could feel the pain through higher impairments as customers go under.
The only FTSE 100 bank I currently hold is Lloyds Banking Group, which is focused heavily on UK retail and small business lending. Barclays has a much broader footprint, through corporate and investment banking. It retains a meaningful presence on Wall Street and is expanding in the Middle East. That international exposure brings risk as well as rewards though.
Looking good value
Chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan is being rewarded for driving the group through a demanding period. The major banks have had to defend their turf against digital challengers while following the controversial but inevitable policy of closing branches. Barclays is now targeting a return on tangible equity above 14% in 2028, upgraded from a previous aim of more than 12% by 2026.
So is the recent dip a buying opportunity? I think it could be. Broker consensus suggests a 12-month price target of roughly 538p, implying potential gains of about 19% from today’s 451p. Forecasts are never guaranteed, of course.
I love buying bargain shares, yet waiting for the perfect entry point rarely works. With the P/E back near 10.5 and profits growing strongly, I don’t feel I’d be overpaying today. Despite a strong run, I still think Barclays is worth considering. If wider volatility delivers another wobble next week, that could make my decision even easier.
