The Aston Martin (LSE:AML) share price has lost value in six out of the past seven years. Only 2023 was a positive year for the luxury sports car manufacturer, with a 46.5% gain following its IPO in late 2018.
Unfortunately, that bright spot was nowhere near enough to make up for the other years, including 2019 (-60%), 2020 (-39.8%), 2021 (-32.6%)… you get the picture.
In 2025, the fall was 40.4%, and it has continued sliding in 2026. The share price today is just 59p.
You don’t need to have the observation skills of Sherlock Holmes to see a worrying trend here. Might the share price go to zero?
What is it?
Firstly though, what is Aston Martin anyway? I admit that question may sound strange. After all, it makes cars — fast and sexy ones. The sort that James Bond drives at speed as he violates various traffic laws to defend Queen/King and Country.
No, I’m talking about the stock. It’s not a growth stock because, well, it’s not growing revenue and profits. In 2025, the carmaker’s revenue is expected to have fallen around 15.6% to £1.33bn, with losses alongside.
It’s certainly not a dividend stock. Aston Martin has never paid one, with cumulative pre-tax losses of more than £2bn since IPO.
Quality stock companies have predictable cash flows, low debt, and high returns on capital. So, it’s definitely not one of these, nor a momentum stock (it’s down 44% in a year).
Value stocks usually have earnings and often pay a dividend.
Huge debt
Some may view Aston Martin as a ‘turnaround’ or recovery play. Personally, I class this more as a speculative stock because the company has a long track record of profit warnings and mounting debt.
In Q3, management said work was under way to “review our future product cycle plan with the aim of optimising costs and capital investment whilst continuing to deliver innovative, class leading products“.
However, car manufacturing (especially in the UK) is capital-intensive and spending cuts will only go so far. Ultimately, Aston Martin needs to sell more cars, but right now it’s experiencing weak demand in China and headwinds from US tariffs.
The brand’s first mid-engine plug-in hybrid, Valhalla, will help, with 500 deliveries planned for 2026. This high-priced hypercar should boost revenue and margins this year.
But I fear specials like Valhalla are not enough to turn Aston Martin profitable. It needs strong demand across its portfolio and the backdrop isn’t great today for most luxury brands.
Meanwhile, the balance sheet continues to put me off. In September, net debt stood at nearly £1.4bn, with an adjusted net leverage ratio of 8.3 times, up from 4.2 times the year before. Yikes.
Going bust?
So, might Aston Martin stock go to 0p? I don’t think so. Given the brand heritage, somebody will surely buy it, whether that’s a larger carmaker, a sovereign wealth fund, or another ambitious billionaire like Executive Chairman Lawrence Stroll.
As such, I think the company is more likely to be taken private. But when and at what price, I have absolutely no idea.
While I want this iconic British brand to find success, I’m not keen on buying the FTSE 250, even at 59p. I see better opportunities about today.
