Since the start of 2025, Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY) shares have been on a tear. The bank’s stocks now (6 February) changing hands for almost double what it was at the start of January 2025. But cautious investors could be forgiven for wondering when the rally will end. After all, surely it can’t last much longer?
Or can it? To try and find out, I asked ChatGPT for its thoughts.
What did it say?
As you’d expect, the software was cautious. It warned of uncertainties when it comes to investing and noted that the bank’s future stock price is difficult to predict because it will be influenced by earnings which, in turn, will be impacted by general economic conditions, interest rates, and market sentiment.
It then pointed out that the consensus 12-month share price target of analysts is 106p, a lot lower than 175p. The most optimistic estimate was 117p. Again, way short.
However, it didn’t say it was impossible to increase 64% from its current level of 107p. To get there, it would need “continued strong profit growth” and a “higher return on tangible equity”.
It would also need “substantial” stock buybacks reducing the bank’s share count and increasing its earnings per share. At a macro level, the software said it would require “better-than-expected” UK economic growth.
On balance, ChatGPT concluded that a share price of 175p in 2026 would be a “very bullish and somewhat unlikely scenario” requiring “exceptional earnings, macro tailwinds, or strategic surprises that materially exceed current expectations”.
It suggested 120p was “more plausible”.
A human’s perspective
When it comes to Lloyds, I’ve definitely learned from my mistakes. Its amazing share price rally has repeatedly proven me wrong. When the bank’s shares were changing hands for 70p, 80p, and 90p, I thought the bull run would soon end. But it didn’t.
And now its share price is comfortably above 100p. I’m not going to predict the buying frenzy will stop soon, even though it sometimes feels like I’m the only person who believes the bank’s shares are expensive, and that its dividend yield is no longer attractive. However, it’s for these reasons that I don’t want to invest.
But the latest forecasts of analysts are impressive. Compared to 2024, they show earnings per share more than doubling to 12.8p by 2028. Over the same period, its return on tangible equity’s expected to improve from 12.3% to 18%.
Personally, I believe these to be too optimistic, but others clearly disagree with me, which is why the bank’s share price continues to defy my expectations.
A final thought
Of course, using ChatGPT is only a bit of fun. I reckon there’s no substitute for human-led research when it comes to picking shares. Fortunately, there are loads of exciting opportunities to choose from at the moment, but my advice would be not to rely on a piece of software to decide which ones to take advantage of.
