Since January 2025, two of the FTSE 100’s star performers have been Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) and Endeavour Mining (LSE:EDV), with their share prices rising exponentially.
Soaring gold and silver prices are behind this incredible run. But could it last throughout 2026 or is the bubble about to burst? Let’s take a closer look.
All that glitters
The first thing to note is that both companies have different exposures to these two metals. Endeavour Mining produces only gold from its five mines in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. During the nine months ended 30 September 2025, it mined 911koz (thousand ounces).
Fresnillo claims to be “the world’s leading silver producer” and one of Mexico’s largest gold miners. Over the same period, it produced roughly half as much gold and 35,429koz of silver from its eight facilities.
But over the past 12 months or so, this distinction hasn’t been that important. Since the start of 2025, both gold and silver prices have rocketed – by 75% and 210%, respectively — increasing earnings for these miners without them having to do anything different. Indeed, Fresnillo produced 11.7% less silver in the first six months of 2025 than it did a year earlier, yet its EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) more than doubled.
To further illustrate the impact of these favourable market conditions, Fresnillo says higher metals prices accounted for 69% of the $630m of extra gross profit in the first half of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.
It also means everything under the ground is worth a lot more than previously.
Can it last?
But going forward things might be different.
Historically, although silver and gold prices tend to move in tandem, the former is often more volatile. And the price forecasts for the two suggest there’s more optimism surrounding gold. Looking at the predictions from analysts employed by the major banks, none are forecasting a significant price drop from its current level. Most market specialists are expecting a price of around $5,000/oz (at 22 January, it was approximately $4,830) by the end of 2026. And I can see why the gold price is predicted to go higher. It retains its status as a ‘safe haven’, which means current geopolitical uncertainty is pushing its price higher.
By contrast, predictions for silver prices don’t appear to be as optimistic. In fact, some analysts are forecasting a drop.
Of course, nobody really knows for sure, which makes the mining sector more risky than many others. To add to the uncertainty, both Africa and South America have reputations for political instability, as well as volatile currencies.
But as long as an investor is aware of the potential risks should metals prices fall or production be disrupted as a result of one of the many operational challenges, I think both are worth considering. However, I’m leaning more towards Endeavour Mining.
In theory, Fresnillo offers some diversification through its exposure to two precious metals but I think the gold price is likely to remain higher for longer. Demand from the world’s central banks is a key driver with the dollar appearing to fall out of favour.
Endeavour Mining also claims to have the third-lowest costs in the sector, which means it should do better relative to most of its closest rivals.
