After surging more than 400% over the course of 2025, a lot of folk were becoming bearish on the Fresnillo (LSE: FRES) share price when the year started. How is it going now? It’s climbed 19% in less than a month.
The gold and silver miner has been thriving thanks, in part, to the rising price of both ‘safe haven’ metals. But there could be a wider reason why the rapid rise of 2025 was no flash in the pan.
Currencies
I am referring here to a process which has come to be called ‘de-dollarisation’. The term has gained traction recently because of the number of signs pointing towards a move away from the United States dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
This is a thorny issue with a lot of moving parts. One cause is countries like China and Russia wanting to shift away the dominance of the US currency – aiming to spark the so-called ‘death of the dollar’. A number of nations have been stockpiling gold and silver, causing the prices to rise.
Another cause is the mounting debt levels across the pond. Holding cash in dollars is less attractive when there is a risk that inflationary tools can be used to make the dollar less valuable and consequently reduce debt levels in absolute terms.
My viewpoint is that these and other causes of ‘de-dollarisation’ threaten to become more significant in the years ahead. This could mean the Fresnillo share price keeps booming in the years to come. While 2025 is almost certainly going to be an exception, only a third of the returns would be needed for the share price to go past the £100 mark.
Complex
Hang on a second now! Fresnillo shares went up over 400% in 2025. That’s an order of magnitude above the silver price, which went up around 140% and the gold price, which went up 60%. What’s going on here?
Well, this is because asset prices are only one aspect of a complex business. The firm was able to grow earnings-per-share by around five times, partly due to a shift towards higher gold production. This is one difference between investing in metals as a store of value and investing in the stock market.
This can be a double-edged sword too. If operations struggle over the next few years then this could make a for a bad investment even if gold and silver keep rising in value.
Overall? Like any business that trades in commodities, the plight of the share price will be linked with uncontrollable market prices. But I’d say this is a stock to consider for investors who understand what they’re getting into. That said, there are plenty of other desirable opportunities around at the moment.
