Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has a long track record of proving the doubters wrong. And there have been plenty of those over the years, ranging from Charlie Munger to countless analysts and short sellers.
But any investor who believed in CEO Elon Musk’s vision for the EV company has likely made incredible returns over the past decade. In this time, the stock has skyrocketed more than 3,000%, making Tesla the eighth-largest company in the S&P 500 today.
However, that’s all in the past. The only question I have now is, should I invest in the stock today?
Innovation machine
Let’s start with the positives I see here. First off, there’s Tesla’s relentless innovation, with robotaxis, the Tesla Bot (Optimus), and various other projects going on at the company.
Musk said recently that Optimus robots will be doing household chores, walking dogs, and even carrying out surgery within the next few years. While we might scoff at that likelihood, and certainly the timeline in which it might happen, the vision is nonetheless exciting.
This is certainly not Ford or Peugeot we’re looking at here!
Also, Tesla has a thriving energy generation and storage business that rarely gets talked about. In Q3, revenue here jumped 44% year on year to just over $3bn. This is scaling independently of the automotive segment, and I’m bullish on its long-term global growth potential.
Meanwhile, after years of missed deadlines, robotaxis are finally on the road. Granted, they still face regulatory hurdles, but it’s worth noting that a Robotaxi iOS app is now available in the US and Canada. Anyone can download it to join the waitlist.
So this robotaxi dream is much closer to becoming reality.
What about the stock?
Turning to things I don’t like, Tesla’s core EV business is struggling. In 2025, it delivered approximately 1.64m cars, which represented a 9% drop on the year before.
Also, China’s BYD has become the world’s top seller of EVs. So while Tesla is struggling to grow sales, rivals are gaining ground, especially in Europe.
Will robotaxis scale fast enough to offset declining EV sales? Possibly, but I can’t be sure, and this uncertainty worries me.
Meanwhile, Musk continues to polarise opinion with his outspoken online presence. While this doesn’t seem to do the share price any harm — it has doubled in two years — it must still be hurting EV sales.
After all, politics is tribal and many people/potential customers now associate the brand squarely with Musk.
According to a study by economists at Yale University, Tesla lost between 1m and 1.26m vehicle sales in the US between late 2022 and early 2025 due to Musk’s political activism.
By the first quarter of 2025, we found that Tesla sales would have been about 125% higher than they were without the Musk partisan effect.
Yale University
Finally, we have the valuation, with Tesla stock trading at 193 times forward earnings. As I see it, this valuation assumes it’s game, set, and match for Tesla’s robotaxis business.
In reality though, it will face an increasing amount of competition worldwide, including from Nvidia indirectly (it’s arming carmakers with an open-source autonomous driving platform).
Putting all this together, I’m not keen to invest in Tesla stock today. I see better tech opportunities elsewhere.
