2025 marked the third straight year that Tesco (LSE:TSCO) shares beat the FTSE 100. However, they’ve started 2026 badly, falling almost 6%.
Does this present a buying opportunity for investors to consider?
Christmas trading
On 8 January, the UK’s leading supermarket reported like-for-like sales growth of 2.4% for the Christmas period, and 2.9% for the 19 weeks to 3 January 2026 (excluding fuel).
Management said full-year adjusted operating profit will now come in towards the upper end of the £2.9bn-£3.1bn guidance range issued in October. And it still expects free cash flow within its medium-term target of £1.4bn-£1.8bn.
In the four weeks to 28 December, Tesco’s market share in the UK reached a 10-year high of 29.4%. So, despite all the competition out there, the company is still managing to gain ground.
It was a similar story in the Republic of Ireland, where its market share edged up to 24% in the 12 weeks to 30 November.
On the surface then, everything is going swimmingly at Tesco. CEO Ken Murphy said he was “delighted with the strong Christmas“.
Why is the stock down then?
Nevertheless, investors were spooked that supermarket volumes unexpectedly stepped down over the Christmas period.
According to market researcher NielsenIQ, UK grocery sales increased 2.5% in value over the four weeks to 27 December, but volumes slipped 0.2%. The question is, why were volumes softer?
Clearly, the ongoing cost-of-living crisis must be the key factor. This will have been exacerbated over Christmas when folk had toys and gifts to buy as well as food. Looking at the price of big joints of meat nowadays, this is hardly surprising.
Consumer confidence remains fragile, which is a challenge for all retailers.
Another emerging factor might be appetite-suppressing GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which around 5% of the UK’s population are now taking.
When asked about this on the Q3 earnings call, Murphy replied: “I think there’s a general impact from people wanting to eat and live more healthily. And for sure, within that, GLP-1 will be having an impact…trends are emerging and we are keeping a very close eye on them“.
He noted that fresh food sales were up 0.6% and it already had plenty of high-protein options for healthier shopping. “Whatever way this trend evolves, we’re really well set up to take advantage of it,” he added.
Too early
Shore Capital’s Clive Black concluded that lower volumes are “perhaps the clearest indication of the impact” GLP-1 drugs are having. Higher sales of no- and low-alcohol drinks also jumped over Christmas.
It’s too early to tell what impact GLP-1s might have on volumes long term. But with millions more people expected to take these powerful drugs in future, this topic clearly isn’t going away.
My view is that Tesco shareholders shouldn’t be worried. People on GLP-1s still need to eat, obviously. Tesco might just have to adjust its offerings in certain areas.
Price forecast
The latest broker targets suggest Tesco stock could rise nearly 15% by 2027. If so, that would turn £5,000 into nearly £6,000, including dividends.
Whether that forecast comes to fruition is another matter. But the shares look fairly valued at 13.3 times forward earnings, while offering a 3.8% forward yield.
I reckon Tesco is worth considering for its passive income potential
