The Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) share price has exploded over the past 12 months, increasing from 645p last January to over 3,430p today. That’s a surge of over 430%!
What caused this immense growth? And should I be considering this FTSE stock for my own portfolio? Let’s take a look.
Why did the Fresnillo share price just explode?
Fresnillo’s one of the largest precious metals miners in Mexico, specialising in both silver and gold. And despite what the skyrocketing share price suggests, 2025 wasn’t all smooth sailing.
Lower ore grades, smaller production volumes, and even cessation of mining activities at its San Julián project resulted in the group’s silver output tumbling by double digits. Fortunately, the opposite happened with its gold mining activities.
But while higher gold production helped offset the struggles with silver, it was ultimately commodity prices that were responsible for the mining stock’s meteoric rise.
In the last 12 months, gold’s shot up 67% to $4,429 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver surged 152% to $76 per ounce. And consequently, even with a few operational hiccups, Fresnillo’s 2025 earnings are forecast to hit as high as $1.74 per share, up from $0.36 in 2024 – a 383% increase.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising to see the share price explode.
Is Fresnillo a good investment in 2026?
With escalating geopolitical conflicts and rising economic uncertainty, the price of precious metals could continue moving higher. After all, gold and silver are both considered to be safe haven assets, with the yellow metal being more popular.
At the same time, following the group’s recent acquisition announcement of Probe Gold in Canada, the business is on track to become more geographically diversified, with a significant step up in production expected towards the end of this decade.
However, it’s essential to remember that commodity prices can fall just as quickly as they went up. What’s more, the Mexican government is currently scrutinising the mining industry with new regulatory restrictions and tax hiking proposals.
By expanding into Canada, Fresnillo’s reducing its exposure in the long run. But in the short term the group remains vulnerable.
So where does that leave investors? Ignoring the political and regulatory threats, investing in Fresnillo still seems quite risky.
Even on a forward basis, the stock’s price-to-earnings ratio now sits at 25.6, suggesting that most, if not all, long-term production and commodity price forecasts have already been baked in. And when looking at broker forecasts, the average consensus suggests that the Fresnillo share price could be 30% overvalued.
With that in mind, despite the impressive business, I’m not rushing to buy the shares in 2026. Instead, my focus is on finding other growth opportunities that are still under most investors’ radar. And luckily, there are quite a few to pick from right now.
