Tesla‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA) business operations have experienced a volatile year. This has been reflected in the sharp moves in Tesla stock. It’s up 20% over the past year, but my focus is now on 2026.
I have my own views on where it will go in the coming year, but I wanted to get a second opinion, so I turned to ChatGPT to see what it thought.
An underwhelming answer
The chatbot told me it would expect the stock to finish in a range of $440-$520. For context, the share price is currently at $454. It explained why it offered this range, saying that there is still upside potential if robotics and autonomy progress, but caveated this with citing key risks if delivery volumes for vehicles disappoint or problems with EV subsidies continue.
I didn’t really find the answer particularly helpful at all. The range offered doesn’t provide an investor with a clear indication at all, given where the share price currently is. If anything, it’s an answer that sits on the fence, lacking clarity or conviction. Of course, even human analysts might not have a clear conviction on the stock, and that’s fine. But in terms of providing a reasonable second opinion, ChatGPT’s performance isn’t great.
Adding in my view
By contrast to ChatGPT, I’m more confident that Tesla could do well in the coming year. This is based on the fact that there are many potential catalysts that could help the stock increase in value.
To begin with, we’ll likely have more announcements on the expansion of the robotaxi service. This is likely achieved by opening new cities and increasing the fleet size. Given concerns about more traditional EV sales performance in places like Europe, I think there’s a strong likelihood we also get updates or regulatory signalling on autonomy licensing in Europe and Asia. This should be taken very positively by investors, as it shows the business model can work outside of the US.
I’m hearing rumours of new vehicle launches. This likely is a cheaper model, targeting more budget-conscious customers. On top of this, there should be news or progress on Optimus, the humanoid, and more from the robotics division.
When I take a step back, a lot is going on with the US stock right now. Of course, the main risk is that one of these turns out to be a disaster, causing investors to run for safety and sell their stock. Yet, on balance, I think there’s enough to focus on, even with one disappointment, for investors to be optimistic about the future.
As a result, I think the stock could finish the year well above the ChatGPT target range offered and so may be worth considering. I think it’s an example of how human research can lead an investor to pick up on sentiment that the objective AI bot might miss. Therefore, it’s always worth getting a second opinion on a company, but always take it with a pinch of salt!
