HSBC (LSE: HSBA) shares have given investors a remarkable ride over the last five years. The Asia-focused bank is up 50% in the last year and almost 220% over five years. I wasn’t on board, sadly, and regret it.
With dividends added in, the total return is even more impressive. HSBC’s payout has hovered above 5%, so anyone reinvesting their shareholder payouts could be looking at a total return of roughly 250%.
Booming FTSE 100 sector
Some people criticise FTSE 100 stocks as dull or underpowered. The high-flying HSBC share price proves how wrong that assumption is. And this isn’t just a one-off. All the FTSE 100 banks have flown over the past few years, including Lloyds Banking Group, which I’m happy to say I do hold.
After years of draining the swamp post-financial crisis, the big bad banks are now thriving. They’re making big profits, rewarding shareholders with dividends and even running generous share buybacks.
HSBC has excelled on all fronts. Its 2024 financial year pre-tax profit hit $32.32bn, up $2bn from 2023 (also a bumper year). Dividends have been progressive, rising from 25 US cents in 2021 to 66 cents in 2024. They aren’t guaranteed, of course. Shareholder payouts were frozen at 51 cents from 2015 to 2018, then slashed in 2019 and 2020.
Share buybacks have also been generous, typically running at $3bn a quarter. That changed on 9 October when the bank paused buybacks to cover the cost of buying out minority investors in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Bank. The shares slumped on the day. They’ve since bounced back.
Profitable performance
On 28 October, HSBC reported a 14% in third-quarter profits to $7.3bn, aggravated by to a $1.1bn legal provision over Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Net interest income rose 15% to $8.8bn, helped by its buoyant wealth division.
The bank expects full-year net interest income of $43bn, reflecting confidence in near-term policy rates in the UK and Hong Kong.
HSBC shares still look good value despite that stellar run. The price-to-earnings ratio is 11.4, well below the FTSE 100 average of 18. The trailing dividend yield has slipped to 4.72% as the shares fly, but it’s expected to reach 5.01% in 2025 and 5.33% in 2026.
So will the shares inevitably slow after such a strong run? That’s certainly the way brokers are betting. Consensus one-year forecasts produce a target figure 1,086p. That’s a modest rise of just 1.5% from today.
Modest valuation, bumpy forecasts
As with any stock, there are risks. The Chinese economy is struggling, and trade tensions with the US are likely to create further volatility. Interest rates may fall next year, squeezing net interest margins, a key profit metric. If the artificial intelligence bubble bursts, as some fear, no stock will escape the fallout.
Growth is highly likely to slow from here, so investors might consider holding off in the hope of buying on a dip. Will we get one? Nobody knows. I think HSBC shares are still worth considering today, with a long-term view. The earlier investors start, the sooner the dividends will start rolling in.
