For close to a decade, Tesco (LSE:TSCO) shares were a bit of a sleeper stock. In fact, between 2015 and 2022, the Tesco share price essentially didn’t move over the seven-year period. And yet, since the start of 2023, the retailer has been on a rampage, stealing market share, driving up sales, and expanding its bottom line.
This trend has continued in 2025, with the stock climbing another 25.8% over the last six months. It means anyone who invested £5,000 in April now has just shy of £6,300.
But as all investors know, past performance is a poor indicator of future results. So what should investors expect moving forward?
Latest professional forecasts
Since late March, Tesco’s UK market share has grown from 27.7% to 28.3%. That may seem like a small difference. But when scaled to a roughly £250bn grocery retail industry, it translates into chunky revenue and earnings growth for Britain’s biggest supermarket.
Looking at its latest results, sales were up 5.1%, from £31.5bn to £33.1bn, with underlying earnings growing even faster by 6.8%, from 14.45p per share to 15.43p. And that’s ultimately paved the way for a 12.9% boost in dividends.
For a mature retail giant, this mid-to-high single-digit growth’s pretty impressive. So it’s unsurprising that opinions from institutional investors remain firmly within bull territory. Three analysts currently rate the stock as a Buy, with another nine expecting Tesco shares to Outperform. And yet, when looking at the share price forecasts, things are a little less exciting.
| Analyst | Share Price Forecast | Potential Gain/Loss |
| UBS | 500p | +8.9% |
| JP Morgan | 475p | +3.5% |
| Citigroup | 460p | +0.2% |
| Barclays | 455p | -0.9% |
| Morgan Stanley | 450p | -1.9% |
It seems that while the experts are impressed with the trajectory of the business, the current growth expectations may already be baked into the share price.
Still an opportunity?
Based on current forecasts, growth investors hunting for double-digit returns over the next 12 months are likely better off looking elsewhere. Of course, forecasts aren’t always accurate. And if the supermarket chain continues to dominate and take market share away from its peers, the stock could continue to outperform regardless.
Having said that, it’s important to recognise the increasing level of value-hunting activity from consumers. With inflation still putting pressure on household budgets, discount retailers like Aldi and Lidl are also growing their market share in 2025.
While Tesco’s Clubcard loyalty and price-matching schemes have helped keep shoppers moving through its doors, it also squeezes what are already tight profit margins.
In other words, even if sales volumes remain resilient, earnings might still stumble – something to watch carefully moving forward.
Overall, I remain optimistic about the long-term potential of Tesco shares. I’m currently searching for more aggressive growth opportunities, so this isn’t a stock I’m rushing to buy right now. However, for investors looking to build a more defensive dividend-paying portfolio, I think this retail stock’s definitely worth investigating further.
