The dividend forecasts of FTSE 100 banks are looking brighter than they have in years. Earnings are rising, and so are dividends. Some investors are looking at the big British banks as some of the most attractive dividend stocks on the London Stock Exchange.
The largest four Footsie banks get lots of attention from analysts. That means we have forecasts stretching out years in front to give us an idea of what’s in store. Let’s look at what the big four banks might pay out as a yearly percentage until 2028.
Forecasts
Before I share the information, a word about forecasts. They tend to be accurate when conditions are smooth. Unforeseen scandals like the motor finance one that recently rocked the sector can have an impact. Black swan events (huge disasters that no one really sees coming) like the 2008 recession are even worse. Therefore this table is to be thought of more as a prediction than a certainty, particularly the further away the forecast is.
| Dividend Yield | 2024 (FY) | 2026 (forecast) | 2027 (forecast) | 2028 (forecast) |
| Barclays (LSE: BARC) | 2.01% | 2.23% | 2.47% | 3.04% |
| Lloyds | 3.56% | 4.01% | 4.64% | 5.42% |
| Natwest | 3.68% | 5.11% | 5.72% | 6.39% |
| HSBC | 4.47% | 4.61% | 4.88% | 5.35% |
As the table shows us, there are more similarities than there are differences. All four stocks are expected to grow payouts in the years ahead to matching rising earnings and revenues in the sector.
Another common theme is valuation. Comparing price-to-earnings ratios makes the whole sector look cheap. Each of the four stocks above are trading at a P/E at or close to single digits. A P/E ratio of 15 is often considered ‘fair value’ for a stock. The FTSE 100 average is 19 in November 2025. Therefore investors might be looking at value on offer here as well as decent dividend yields.
What’s the best bank of the lot? That’s a difficult question to answer. Each has its plus points and its challenges. Although I think I can make a pretty strong case that Barclays is a stock investors might want to consider buying.
Efficiency gains
Of the four biggest FTSE 100 banks, Barclays is perhaps the most internationally exposed. This means it is less reliant on a single country’s economy like HSBC is with China or Lloyds is with the UK. This can be a downside too. Its large presence in the US might be a cause for concern given the uncertainty across the pond with tariffs at the moment.
The dividend yield of around 2% looks low too. But the trajectory is that it’s going upwards fast. A fast-growing dividend is a sign of a company on the up. That can mean more share price appreciation and a yield that gets bigger and bigger over time.
Another feather in its cap is the potential of AI. Some predict banks will enjoy some of the biggest efficiency gains because of the new technology. We’re still early to the artificial intelligence revolution. In the future, I might look that considering Barclays now is getting in on the ground floor.
