We’re now entering the final quarter of 2025, and so far this year, the BT (LSE:BT.A) share price has been on an impressive winning streak.
The UK’s leading telecommunications infrastructure enterprise has more than doubled the performance of its parent FTSE 100 index, jumping by 30% since the start of the year. And when throwing in the extra gains from dividends, the total return currently sits at around 35%.
That means anyone who put £20,000 to work last October now has close to £27,000 in their brokerage account compared to the £23,466 of passive index investors. Of course, the question now becomes, will the BT share price jump again in 2026?
What the experts are thinking
BT Group is among the more popular FTSE 100 stocks and consequently has a large following from institutional investors. Yet, even with new management at the helm and improving fundamentals under a new strategy, opinions remain mixed.
Of the 19 experts tracking the stock, only seven current have a buy or outperform recommendation, with five urging investors to sell. So, what’s behind this unclear outlook?
Starting with the optimistic end of forecasts, Arete Research has projected the telecommunication stock could reach 312p by this time next year. And Barclays has also put out a bullish projection of 300p. In both cases, the forecasts are being driven by the expectation of greater operational efficiency and superior free cash flow once the rollout of fibre and 5G is completed, possibly triggering an upward re-rating as a defensive growth stock.
That means anyone who puts £20,000 into BT shares today could end up with close to £33,524 by October 2026, including dividends.
However, on the opposite end of the spectrum, the team at Deutsche Bank and Citigroup have placed their price targets at 140p. Both are concerned about rising competitive threats pressuring pricing power as well as the ever-dwindling revenues of Openreach, with the latter offsetting the gains made with its fibre rollout.
If this more pessimistic outlook proves accurate, then a £20,000 investment could actually backfire, shrinking to just £14,655.
What to watch
Despite the divergence of opinions, there are some common factors that the experts are watching carefully. BT is aiming to hit 25 million households equipped with fibre optic broadband by the end of 2026. The goal is to swap existing customers from older and more expensive to maintain copper wires, lowering operating costs while also improving service quality.
The completion of this migration is essential for BT to ramp up its free cash flow generation from 2027 onwards. That’s a critical requirement in reducing its leverage, fixing the cracks on the balance sheet, and mending its problematic pension deficit.
In other words, there is significant execution risk surrounding this business today. If management hits its key milestones without the tightening of regulatory pricing, then the BT share price could deliver the impressive returns some analysts are projecting.
Personally, this is quite a big ask. So while my opinion of BT as a business has improved over the last 12 months, I think there are better, lower-risk investment opportunities to be considered elsewhere.
