Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) share price continues to move higher. This year, it’s climbed from $134 to $187 – a gain of about 40%.
Wondering what level the chip stock could get to in the medium term? Here’s my share price forecast for 2026.
Huge demand for its GPUs
Before crunching the numbers, it’s worth looking at the backdrop here. Because it’s quite remarkable. Nvidia designs high-powered chips (GPUs) for artificial intelligence (AI). And right now, tech companies like OpenAI (ChatGPT), Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Oracle can’t get enough of them.
Recently, I was listening to an interview with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and he was explaining that GPU supply has been very constrained in recent years. As a result, OpenAI hasn’t been able to do what it wants to do with AI.
“The compute constraints that the whole industry have been in, and our company in particular, have been terrible.”
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman
This suggests to me demand for Nvidia’s latest GPUs (Blackwell and Rubin) is likely to remain very high in the medium term. With Big Tech companies desperate to get an edge in the global AI arms race, Nvidia’s GPUs are likely to fly out the door in the years ahead.
My 2026 forecast
Turning to the numbers, for FY2026 (the year ending 31 January 2026), analysts expect Nvidia to post earnings per share (EPS) of $4.49 (50% growth year on year). For FY2027, they expect EPS of $6.38 (42% growth). Let’s assume these forecasts are accurate (they may not be).
Now, let’s assume that this time next year, it’s looking like Nvidia can achieve 30% earnings growth for FY2028. That would take EPS to $8.29.
To get a share price forecast for 2026, all we need to do is stick an earnings multiple (or price-to-earnings ratio) on this. I’ll go with 30, which I think’s reasonable for a company of Nvidia’s quality.
Multiply $8.29 by 30 and we get $249. That’s my price target for 2026 for now. Now, that’s higher than the average price target ($213). However, quite a few Wall Street firms have targets of around $240-$250, so my forecast isn’t an outlier.
Could we see $300?
I’ll point out that in a really bullish scenario, I wouldn’t rule out a share price of $300 in 2026. For example, let’s say investors were willing to assign a P/E ratio of 37 to the $8.29 EPS forecast. That gives us a share price of $307.
Of course, we should also think about a bear case scenario. Let’s say that AI spending slows, there’s only 10% growth in FY2028, and investors decide a P/E ratio of 25’s appropriate.
That gets us to $175, a little below where the share price is now.
I expect volatility
It’s worth remembering that Nvidia has historically been an extremely volatile stock. So even if it did rise to $249 in 2026, I wouldn’t expect it to get there in a straight line.
It could easily have a 20%-30% pullback on the way. For this stock, such pullbacks are very normal, but it remains a big risk for those buying at the top.
Given it regularly has pullbacks, I don’t think it’s one to consider today. But there may be slightly better buying opportunities in the months ahead.
