The Barclays (LSE:BARC) share price has been on a bit of a rampage over the last 12 months. Higher interest rates combined with strong financial market performance have created welcome tailwinds across the business. And the impact of this has been reflected both on the income statements and in the share price.
In fact, since September last year, Barclays shares are up 72%. And for investors who’ve been reinvesting the dividends along the way, the total return has been closer to 76%. That’s enough to turn a single lump sum investment of £5,000 into £8,800.
Of course, not everyone was so fortunate to buy shares in 2024. So the question now becomes, can the Barclays share price continue to climb into 2026 and beyond? Let’s see what the experts are saying.
2026 share price forecasts
Looking at the latest projections from institutional investors, the general sentiment surrounding Barclays shares seems to be quite positive. Of the 18 analysts following the bank stock, 14 have rated it as a Buy or Outperform. But what about where the stock might be this time next year?
The investment theses from Jefferies, Royal Bank of Canada and Shore Capital seem to be quite similar. All institutions are optimistic of further growth on the horizon, backed by sustained net interest margins courtesy of Barclays’ interest rate hedging activities.
In other words, the bank’s well-positioned to continue enjoying the benefits of higher lending margins even as the Bank of England and Federal Reserve cut interest rates. And since rate cuts also spark economic growth, Barclays could also enjoy macroeconomic tailwinds both in the UK and the US.
Combining this with management’s plans to return £10bn to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, it’s easy to understand the optimistic outlook surrounding this banking giant.
| Institutional Analyst | Barclays Share Price Target | Potential Capital Gain |
| Jefferies | 455p | +19.7% |
| Royal Bank of Canada | 435p | +14.5% |
| Shore Capital | 410p | +7.9% |
Time to consider buying?
Based on these projections, investing £5,000 into Barclays shares today could be worth anywhere between £5,395 and £5,985 by this time next year. That’s obviously not as impressive as the performance of the previous 12 months, but it still demonstrates significant room for upward movement even at the current share price.
However, it’s important to remember that forecasts aren’t set in stone, and there are important risks to consider.
Barclays’ interest rate hedges won’t last forever. And eventually, lending margins will start to suffer. The bank will undoubtedly aim to offset this by increasing loan volumes – something that higher economic growth would typically support. But there’s no guarantee this will be successful or sufficient to expand earnings.
Beyond looming tough comparisons, the bank’s also seeing a rise in credit impairment charges. Put simply, a growing number of customers aren’t keeping up with their payments on time.
So far, the problem’s far from catastrophic. But if economic pressures continue to mount at home and abroad from external forces like tariffs, a rapid rise in impairment charges could send earnings plummeting while compromising the quality of its loan book.
Needless to say, these risks must be assessed carefully. But overall, I remain cautiously optimistic. That’s why investors may want to consider taking a closer look at this enterprise.
