I have my eye on a couple of FTSE 250 companies whose shares look like they might be cheap. And they’re in closely related businesses.
Building materials supplier Travis Perkins (LSE: TPK) is one. It operates through a range of outlets, including Toolstation, as well as selling under its own name.
The share price has fallen nearly 70% since a high in 2021, taking it 50% down over the past five years. I know the construction business has been suffering under the cosh of high interest rates. But I can’t help feeling this fall looks overdone.
Turnaround time?
The company has seen earnings sliding in recent years, falling to a loss per share in 2024. At FY results time, chair Geoff Drabble recognised that “uncertainty remains regarding the strength and timing of a recovery in UK construction activity.” But he believed the company was “better placed to benefit from returning demand” and predicted “attractive returns for shareholders over the medium-term.”
Forecasts suggest a return to positive earnings for the full year, even if only modest. But they then expect EPS to more than double between 2025 and 2027.
We still lack evidence of that turnaround, though. In the first quarter we saw revenue fall 2.4% year on year. But if a first-half update due on 5 August suggests the company is past the worst, I think we might see a share price uptick.
If not, the shares could fall further, as we’re still in risky times. But as long as the company can keep net debt from rising, I think it has the potential to come out the other side smiling. It’s a long-term consideration in my book.
Housing recovery
I’m convinced the UK’s housebuilding business has very attractive long-term prospects. High mortgage rates can damage short-term demand. But that won’t change the country’s chronic housing shortage.
I wonder whether Bellway (LSE: BWY) is well placed to benefit from the recovery when it finally happens. City analysts think so, and they see a return to earnings growth kicking in as soon as this year.
A June trading update reported “robust trading through the spring selling season, with an increase in customer confidence and reservation rates compared to the first half of the financial year.“
Year-end guidance
The company predicted a full-year build volume of between 8,600 and 8,700 homes, up from 7,654 last year. And we could be looking at an operating margin of 11%, compared to a prior 10%.
On the valuation front, a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.5 doesn’t scream ‘cheap’. Not with today’s economic outlook. But if the forecasts are right, we could see it as low as 11 by 2027.
The next trading update is due 12 August, and it’ll give us an idea of how well the full year is turning out. Even if it’s good, I don’t expect any quick share gains. We might need longer-term evidence of a sustained recovery for that. Inflation is still a risk too, up higher than expected in June.
But I’m considering a long-term investment, even though I already hold housebuilder shares.
