Is this FTSE 250 stock gearing up to more than double its market cap by October?

Our writer considers the implications of a recent stock market announcement for the share price of this FTSE 250 retailer. But could it be a case of 2+2=5?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

many happy international football fans watching tv

Image source: Getty Images

On 3 July, Frasers Group (LSE:FRAS), the FTSE 250 owner of Sports Direct, announced that it had secured a new term loan and credit facility worth up to £3.5bn.

This replaces its existing £1.65bn facility, of which £1.15bn had been drawn down at 27 October 2024. Assuming nothing’s changed, there’s potentially another £2.35bn available to the group.

But why does Frasers need extra borrowing capacity?

It might be a case of building up a bigger ‘rainy day’ fund. Retailing is a tough business, especially for a group that operates over 1,500 physical stores in the UK. And the April increase in the Living Wage and employer’s National Insurance has added £50m to the group’s costs this year.

Alternatively, Frasers might want to increase its minority stakes in other listed businesses. Although its roots are in fashion, its interests now extend to online beauty and electrical retailing.

A massive incentive

It’s interesting to me that four years ago, the group agreed a remuneration package with its chief executive, Michael Murray.

Under its terms, he’s entitled to share options worth £100m if the group’s share price hits £15 by October 2025 and remains above this level for 30 consecutive dealing days.

But I think it’s significant that Murray’s waived his £1m salary, especially given that the group (income investors look away now) doesn’t pay a dividend. It’s a case of ‘all or nothing’ for the man in charge.

Something transformational

The share price is nowhere near that as of today (10 July) but the additional funding could be used to buy another significant business, one that could transform the size and scale of Frasers. Doing so wouldn’t theoretically happen overnight and the share price more than doubling wouldn’t either, unless there was a big target already in sight.

Based on the group’s 10-year average earnings multiple of 10.4, it would need an annual post-tax profit of around £650m to get its share price to £15. That’s approximately £215m more than analysts are expecting for FY25. How might it do this? I reckon Frasers could use £2bn of its £2.35bn to buy the 80% of Hugo Boss (one of its minority interests referred to earlier) that it doesn’t already own. Doing this would add £200m to the group’s profit.

Cynics might suggest that if Murray fails, the bonus target will be extended. After all, his father-in-law, Mike Ashley, owns more than 70% of the company. But the group’s independent remuneration committee has to sign-off any deal and it’s clear that Murray has spent several years in charge focused on what’s best for the company regardless.

On reflection…

Ignoring the bonus issue, I think there are reasons why investors should keep an eye on the group. Not least, its impressive track record of growth. FY24 revenue was 40% higher than FY20’s. And its operating margin more than doubled.

Also, despite the additional employment costs, brokers are expecting earnings per share to increase by 23% over the next three years. And their average 12-month share price target is 32% higher than today’s price. Of course, these forecasts may be wrong but they do suggest a high degree of optimism about the group’s prospects.

This is why I own shares in Frasers. And why I think others could consider adding the stock to their own portfolios.

James Beard has positions in Frasers Group Plc. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Smiling white woman holding iPhone with Airpods in ear
Investing Articles

Up just 1%: what’s going on with Tesco shares now?

Dr James Fox takes a closer look at Tesco shares after the stock rose less than the rest of the…

Read more »

Rear view image depicting a senior man in his 70s sitting on a bench leading down to the iconic Seven Sisters cliffs on the coastline of East Sussex, UK. The man is wearing casual clothing - blue denim jeans, a red checked shirt, navy blue gilet. The man is having a rest from hiking and his hiking pole is leaning up against the bench.
Investing Articles

How much do I need in a Stocks and Shares ISA to reach a £2,027 monthly passive income?

The new financial year is under way and that means new allowances for the Stocks and Shares ISA! How much…

Read more »

UK coloured flags waving above large crowd on a stadium sport match.
Investing Articles

Why is everyone suddenly buying this dirt-cheap growth stock?

This beaten-down UK growth stock has suddenly become the centre of attention as investors target its recovery potential. The Iran…

Read more »

Finger clicking a button marked 'Buy' on a keyboard
Investing Articles

Why is everyone buying Rolls-Royce shares?

Rolls-Royce shares jumped 10% today, even giving mining stocks a run for their money as the FTSE 100 index suddenly…

Read more »

Shot of a senior man drinking coffee and looking thoughtfully out of a window
Investing Articles

Up 8%: what’s going on with Lloyds shares today?

Dr James Fox takes a closer look at one of the stock market's biggest gainers on Wednesday 8 April after…

Read more »

piggy bank, searching with binoculars
Investing Articles

Fresnillo share price rebounds as a FTSE 100 top mover after a 30% sell-off — what’s next?

The Fresnillo share price has surged today — Andrew Mackie asks whether this FTSE 100 mover is signalling a turning…

Read more »

Artillery rocket system aimed to the sky and soldiers at sunset.
Investing Articles

The BP and Shell share price are being hammered today – what should investors do?

FTSE 100 stocks are rocketing this morning but the BP and Shell share price are heading the other way. Should…

Read more »

Man hanging in the balance over a log at seaside in Scotland
Investing Articles

Has the BP share price rally just run out of steam?

Andrew Mackie looks beyond today’s BP share price fall to explain why cash flow and the oil cycle still support…

Read more »