It has been a rough year for BP (LSE: BP). The BP share price is 21% lower than a year ago, while UK rival Shell has lost only 8% during the same period.
Over five years, the BP share price has moved up 24%. That sounds impressive but badly lags Shell, with a share price that has more than doubled during that period.
BP is itself to blame for many of its challenges, I reckon. It has spent years making questionable capital allocation choices amid a series of strategic about turns.
However, I do think there are some things that could help move the BP share price up over the coming several years. Here are three of them.
Higher energy prices
Like many rivals, BP’s business is deceptively similar. How well it does largely depends on energy prices.
If oil prices shoot upwards, that would likely be good for revenues and profits at BP – as well as the share price.
The oil market can move in strange ways. Recall that barely five years ago, some oil producers were actually paying buyers to take oil off their hands for a short period of time! However, 2025 has so far been a year of significant geopolitical uncertainty and that looks set to last.
What will that mean for oil prices? Nobody knows. But if prices go up sharply, I see it as offering a likely boost to the BP price.
However, the same would likely be true of other energy companies too. So, as an investor, the question I ask myself is not just whether I want to invest in an oil company right now, but if so whether BP is the most attractive option.
Possible takeover
Another possible boost could come from the potential for a takeover bid from a rival. BP’s relatively weak performance in recent years makes it look more likely to be the target than the predator in such a scenario.
Shell has recently firmly denied rumours that it has been considering such a move.
Anyway, I never buy a share just in the hope of a takeover. A bid is never guaranteed to materialise and, even if it does, that does not always mean that a deal will proceed.
Strategy delivering better results
A more interesting driver for a higher BP share price, in my view, would be evidence that the company had put its strategic shilly-shallying of recent years behind it and was starting to demonstrate stronger financial performance as a result.
There is some evidence of that – BP has been tacking back to a business strategy more firmly focussed on fossil fuels than it did several years ago.
It will take some years to see whether that delivers. By 2027, for example, BP is targeting a return on average capital employed above 16%, versus 14% last year.
For now, the BP investment case does not particularly grab me. I am waiting to see whether the company meaningfully improves its long-term business performance, but currently have no plans to invest.
