I have mixed feelings about my Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW) shares. I bought them in 2023 when they looked cheap and cheerful, offering a generous income and plenty of recovery potential.
The shares jumped and I was comfortably in profit. Then sentiment turned. Interest Rrte cut hopes were pushed back, mortgage costs stayed high and the share price drifted. Over the last year, it’s down about 16%.
Income, no growth
I’m clinging to a modest paper loss, but once dividends are included, I’m just about in the black. The yield helps me stay patient. At 7.85%, it’s one of the biggest on the FTSE 100.
The 2024 dividend per share was cut, but only by 1.25%, and I’ve been reinvesting mine at what I hope will prove bargain prices. That should quietly lift my long-term returns if the rebound eventually arrives.
Analysts have pencilled in a 12-month target just under 145p. That would be around 20% up from today, with dividends on top. Some 12 out of 17 brokers now call it a Buy, including 10 Strong Buys. No Sells in sight.
There’s no shortage of risks, of course. With inflation set to remain sticky at 3.5%, some think we may not get another cut interest rate cut this year. GDP forecasts have been trimmed and there’s talk of more tax rises in the autumn. This is still a tricky time.
Sector sentiment improving
Despite the macro gloom, confidence in housebuilders seems to be picking up. I can’t see the government hitting its optimistic 1.5m homes target. However, it did recently announce £39bn for affordable housing and £4.8bn in loans for developers.
Sales activity is slowly picking up, and several builders have seen decent share price gains since April. Persimmon (LSE: PSN) is picking up nicely. The share price is up 11% in the last three months, although it’s still down 3% over 12.
Am I backing the right one?
Persimmon focuses heavily on first-time buyers and lower-priced homes, and claims this gives it an edge when affordability’s stretched. This can cut both ways though. This category of buyer may be hit harder by the slowdown. Its latest update, published on 1 May, showed sales improving and forward orders up 12% to £2.34bn.
Its 275-site network’s growing, land holdings have edged higher, and its in-house materials division gives it a cost advantage of around £5,500 per plot.
Analysts admmire its resilience. Nine out of 15 call it a Strong Buy, with a median price target of 1,515p. That’s 13% above today’s level. Persimmon’s yield is a lower than Taylor Wimpey’s at 4.5%. It’s been bumpier too. The board slashed it by 75% in 2023 to 60p per share. And held it at 60p in both 2023 and 2024.
Both stocks have exactly the same trailing price-to-earings (P/E) ratio of 14.4. Coincidence or not?
For now, I’m happy collecting my dividends from Taylor Wimpey. Although I think Persimmon is also worth considering. Let’s hope a rising tide lifts both boats. The big question is when that tide will come.
