The Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR.) share price has dazzled investors. It’s up a stunning 870% in three years, and 85% in the last 12 months.
It’s secured a loyal army of followers – I number among them. The question we’re all asking today is whether Rolls-Royce shares can keep this up. That’s inevitable, after such a stellar run.
FTSE 100 breakout star
Two Sunday (22 June) newspapers tackled this exact question and delivered very different answers.
The Mail on Sunday warned of potential “turbulent times ahead” due to technical issues with the group’s ageing Trent 1000 engines. The Sunday Telegraph took a more bullish stance, angling on CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç pursuing a new era of industrial dominance. So which is it going to be?
Two visions, one stock
The Trent 1000 engine, which powers Boeing 787s, has long had reliability issues. Yet Rolls-Royce clearly has huge new growth opportunities.
Erginbilgiç now aims to re-enter the short-haul jet engine market after more than a decade away, taking on General Electric and Pratt & Whitney. That’s a big market and could pay off nicely, especially if he can win contracts with the likes of Ryanair and Wizz Air.
Rolls-Royce also leading the charge on nuclear power, with its selection as preferred bidder to supply small modular reactors to Great British Nuclear. That could create tens of thousands of jobs and drive future export growth. But Trent engines are its bread and butter, and trouble here will hurt the shares.
Forecasts vary
Analysts aren’t so divided. Among the 13 giving stock ratings, 10 name Rolls a Strong Buy. Two say Hold, and just one says Sell. However, they’re more cautious this would suggest. Brokers have set a one-year median share price target of 929p. That’s only 4.5% above today’s 890p.
So what about me? Personally, I have no plans to sell. That said, it’s tempting to bank some gains after a run like this. With a price-to-earnings ratio of 44 times, the valuation’s rich. Sooner or later, growth has to slow. Any misstep could hit the share price hard. If Trent problems flare up again, I could see a chunk of my profits vanish.
Civil aerospace’s still the core business, and it’s highly cyclical. Climate risks, war talk or rising fuel prices could hit travel, and squeeze income from engine maintenance contracts based on miles flown.
Defence is in demand but that’s priced in. The nuclear bet’s exciting, but unproven.
I still think there’s brilliant potential here – with a charismatic leader and a clear strategy. But the real fireworks may be over. I have my eye on the long term here. Rolls-Royce really does have an opportunity to position itself as a great British engineering success story. Yet it will go through bumpy times in future, just as it has in the past. I plan to hold through thick and thin. As the dividend recovers, I hope to get some income to see me through the thin times
For fresh investors, it might make sense to consider drip feeding in over time. The long-term story remains compelling, but the short term may be more turbulent.
