These FTSE 250 shares could soar over the next year

FTSE 250 stocks could surge with more rate cuts looming. History tells us that stocks tend to perform extremely well in the year after the first rate cut.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Many value-focused investors will be turning their attention to the FTSE 250 in 2025. This index, representing mid-cap companies, often shows heightened sensitivity to domestic economic policies, including interest rate adjustments. It could be a year of opportunity on the mid-cap index.

Interest rates have started falling

Stocks typically perform well when the Bank of England cuts interest rates. And the rebound is even more pronounced when a recession is avoided. In fact, returns on UK equities averaged 31.5% during the 1996-1997 and 1998-1999 rate-cutting cycles — both times recessions when were avoided.

Intriguingly, the FTSE 250 has often outperformed the FTSE 100 during rate-cutting cycles, particularly in the early 1990s and early 2000s. That’s interesting to me, especially when the FTSE 250 has marginally underperformed the FTSE 100 over the past 12 months.

Moreover, recent analyses suggest that during rate-cutting cycles, FTSE 250 companies are projected to deliver higher earnings growth compared to their large-cap counterparts in the FTSE 100. For instance, in 2025, FTSE 250 earnings are forecasted to grow by over 18%, surpassing the 9% growth anticipated for FTSE 100 companies. That’s according to research from abrdn.

Sector winners

While past performance is no guarantee of future success, it’s certainly interesting and informative to gain a better understanding of these relationships. Banking stocks are one sector that has typically benefitted from rate cutting cycles. Lower borrowing costs typically spur higher lending rates, which can help grow the loan book and increase long-term prospects. Investors may therefore want to take a closer look at lenders like OSB Group — specialising in residential and buy-to-let mortgages — or even Close Brothers Group.

In theory, consumer-facing businesses such as retail should be given a boost by falling interest rates. Of course, factors such as consumer confidence and employment matter too. Frasers Group — owner of Sports Direct — Watches of Switzerland, and Currys all offer different positioning in the retail sector.

Several catalysts

Investors could consider Ocado (LSE:OCDO) shares in a falling rate environment. Growth-oriented companies often benefit from lower borrowing costs and an improved risk appetite.

There are several possible catalysts here. Firstly, Ocado’s advanced automation and technology platform could attract more partnerships and investments as financing becomes cheaper. Additionally, while Ocado’s main business lies in providing technology to global grocery retailers, lower rates might boost consumer spending, potentially driving higher-end grocery sales. This could indirectly benefit Ocado through its retail joint venture with Marks & Spencer.

Investors should note that Ocado’s valuation is heavily reliant on long-term growth projections, making it sensitive to broader market sentiment. Investors should approach this former FTSE 100 company with caution even as the stock pushes to new lows. Careful evaluation of Ocado’s evolving financial health and strategic direction is essential.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

James Fox has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

artificial intelligence investing algorithms
Investing Articles

Up 272% in just a year, is Palantir stock just getting started?

This writer recognises that Palantir has grown its business very well -- but does the stock price offer him an…

Read more »

Runner standing at the starting point with 2025 year for starting in new year 2025 to achieve business planing and success concept.
Investing Articles

Up 50%? The Aston Martin share price forecast is mind-blowing! 

If analysts are right, the Aston Aston Martin share price could absolutely rocket in the year ahead. Harvey Jones says…

Read more »

Investing Articles

As the S&P 500 drops, here are 2 Stocks and Shares ISA holdings I’m watching

Our writer has different views on how President Trump's tariffs might affect these two US holdings in his Stocks and…

Read more »

Surprised Black girl holding teddy bear toy on Christmas
Investing Articles

£10,000 invested in Tesla stock at Christmas is now worth…

Tesla stock has been one of best-performing investments of the past decade. But things haven't gone to plan for investors…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Up 279% in 5 years, could Meta stock keep soaring?

Meta stock has more than tripled in five years. This writer sees lots to like about the business but also…

Read more »

Pink 3D image of the numbers '2025' growing in size
Investing Articles

25% total return in a year? Is now the perfect time to buy BP shares?

BP shares are on the front line of today's global economic and political uncertainty but analysts think they can still…

Read more »

Affectionate Asian senior mother and daughter using smartphone together at home, smiling joyfully
Investing Articles

With Cash ISA changes coming, could now be the time to consider buying shares?

Changes to the Cash ISA could lead to greater investment in the stock market. This could be a good thing…

Read more »

Investing Articles

These FTSE 100 dividend shares just got cheaper, thanks to President Trump!

Investors buying dividend shares can lock in bigger long-term yields when share prices take a tumble. These two just did…

Read more »