The AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) share price has been dragged down by several factors in recent months. Sub-optimal clinical trial results for its lung cancer treatment, Dato-DXd, raised concerns, as the drug failed to demonstrate statistically significant improvement in overall survival across the board.
Additionally, an ongoing investigation into its operations in China has surfaced, with reports suggesting that numerous senior executives could be implicated in a major insurance fraud case.
The pharma company has also faced relatively underwhelming early data from its weight loss drug portfolio, which analysts have described as disappointing. These issues, combined with general market uncertainty surrounding AstraZeneca’s growth potential in China, have pushed the stock down.
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No Sell ratings
AstraZeneca enjoys strong analyst support, with no Sell ratings currently issued. Top firms like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley maintain bullish stances, reflecting confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.
Analysts highlight the strength of AstraZeneca’s oncology pipeline, with key drugs such as Tagrisso and Imfinzi driving revenue growth. Goldman Sachs recently reiterated a Buy rating, citing promising developments in the cardiovascular and immunology segments.
While challenges like patent cliffs loom, AstraZeneca’s diversified portfolio and strategic R&D efforts continue to impress. The absence of any Sell ratings underscores widespread belief that the company’s innovation and execution will result in long-term value for investors.
Overall, the mean consensus remains a Buy from 20 analysts. The stock currently trades around 33% below the average share price target, indicating that the stock is likely undervalued at this time. The highest target of £180.34 suggests an even greater discount of 72%. Even the lowest target price of £105.56 offers a modest potential gain.
Positive forecast despite China report
AstraZeneca’s outlook remains positive despite recent reports suggesting potential sales weakness in China due to the ongoing government probe. The probe concerns allegations that AstraZeneca employees illegally imported cancer drugs like Enhertu and Imjudo from Hong Kong to mainland China and improperly collected patient data. This is alongside a broader investigation into a large health insurance fraud case, raising concerns about potential impacts on regional sales. Following the arrest of the company’s local boss, insiders are now forecasting a fall in sales in what is an incredibly important market.
However, analysts’ forecast, for now at least, suggest the company’s diversified portfolio can offset regional pressures, particularly with strength in oncology and immunology driving growth. AstraZeneca’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.6 times marks a significant improvement from 35.4 times in 2023, with projections falling to 20.3 times by 2025 and 17.6 times by 2026. This increasingly attractive valuation reflects confidence in sustained earnings growth and long-term resilience.
Even with the China issues, solid performance in other key markets, including the US and Europe, supports the consensus that AstraZeneca is well-positioned for continued success. It’s a stock I hold in my SIPP, a position I’m considering adding to.
