A 17% yield! Why I’ve been buying this UK income stock ahead of the Budget

Roland Head thinks the 17% yield offered by this income stock is sustainable and could drive a share price recovery after the Budget.

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The UK market is known for its high-yielding income stocks, but the company I’m looking at today is exceptional, even here.

This business has a £500m market cap and operates in the energy sector. Its shares currently boast a forecast dividend yield of 17%. Management recently reiterated their support for this payout and my sums suggest it could be sustainable.

I recently bought these shares. I’m hopeful that when the dust settles after the Autumn Budget on 30 October, investor confidence in this business may improve.

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Pumping out cash

Serica Energy (LSE: SQZ) is one of the top 10 oil and gas producers in the UK North Sea. The company has grown rapidly in recent years by buying mature fields from larger operators such as BP.

This growth run was then extended with the acquisition of rival North Sea firm Tailwind Energy in 2023.

Serica’s focus on producing assets means that it doesn’t carry the all-or-nothing risk of oil and gas explorers. Instead, the company’s expenditure is carefully targeted to maximise production from known reserves.

As a result, the group business generates a lot of surplus cash. Much of this has been returned to shareholders over the last few years, as this chart shows.


Chart by TradingView

The latest broker forecasts suggest Serica’s dividend will remain at 23p per share this year. That gives a forecast dividend yield of 17.4%, based on the recent 132p share price.

Why are Serica shares so cheap?

This high yield is partly a reflection of the stock’s low valuation. Serica shares currently trade on just three times 2024 forecast earnings, according to recent broker estimates.

The shares have fallen by 40% so far this year as investors have taken fright at the prospect of changes to UK tax and energy policies.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Serica Energy Plc PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.co.uk

One concern is that potential changes in the Autumn Budget may make it harder to operate profitably in the North Sea.

One particular risk flagged up by Serica’s new chief executive relates to capital allowances. In short, changes to these rules could reduce companies’ ability to claim tax relief on future spending. This would make it less attractive to invest in North Sea assets.

The other main risk I can see is simply that Serica’s current production rate won’t be sustainable forever. Many of these fields are relatively mature. Production will gradually decline without investment in additional developments and the acquisition of new assets.

The uncertainty around the budget means planning is difficult right now. There’s a possibility that Serica may just run off its existing assets and enter a managed decline. In that case, the 17% dividend yield might be offset by a gradual decline in the share price.

Why I’ve been buying

I won’t lie. Serica Energy is probably one of the riskier stocks I hold currently.

However, I’m comfortable with the position as part of a diversified portfolio. Here’s why.

In my experience, markets hate uncertainty and fear change. But what I’ve found is that quite often, when new rules are established, good companies are able to adapt and remain profitable.

My guess is that’s what will happen here. I’m sitting tight ahead of the budget. I’m hopeful that Serica shares will recover when there’s more clarity about future investment decisions.

Should you invest £1,000 in Lloyds Banking Group right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Lloyds Banking Group made the list?

See the 6 stocks

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Roland Head has positions in Serica Energy Plc. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Like buying £1 for 51p

This seems ridiculous, but we almost never see shares looking this cheap. Yet this recent ‘Best Buy Now’ has a price/book ratio of 0.51. In plain English, this means that investors effectively get in on a business that holds £1 of assets for every 51p they invest!

Of course, this is the stock market where money is always at risk — these valuations can change and there are no guarantees. But some risks are a LOT more interesting than others, and at The Motley Fool we believe this company is amongst them.

What’s more, it currently boasts a stellar dividend yield of around 8.5%, and right now it’s possible for investors to jump aboard at near-historic lows. Want to get the name for yourself?

See the full investment case

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