The Shell (LSE: SHEL) share price has had a bumpy ride, falling 8.51% in the last year. Naturally, it’s not the only energy stock suffering right now.
The FTSE 100 giant’s fortunes are broadly tied to the oil price, and that’s been in retreat lately, slipping to just above $70 a barrel. Falling demand from China, concerns over the US economy, and rising stockpiles are all squeezing demand. Tensions in the Middle East have not offset the trend. At least so far.
This FTSE 100 dividend growth hero will rise again
The oil and gas sector is famously cyclical. Rising oil prices destroy themselves, by hitting demand. Falling oil prices kickstart demand and the whole thing rolls on.
There is also plenty of scope for shocks, too, as we saw in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and oil spiked to $127. It’s down more than 40% since that peak.
Despite the recent slide, long-term Shell investors won’t be too fazed. The share price is still up 43.45% over three years. If I’d invested £5,000 in October 2021, it would now be worth £7,172.50. In fact, I’d be doing better than that, after taking dividends into account.
Shell isn’t quite the dividend machine it used to be. Today, the trailing yield is just 3.99%. That’s lower than the 5% or 6% I used to see.
Yet it’s still keen to reward shareholders, when conditions allow. In 2022, Shell increased its total dividend by 21% to 80.47p per share, then by another 25% to 99.53p in 2023. That’s impressive growth, even if the 2024 dividend was cut to 79.99p. It has also lavished investors with billions in share buybacks.
The oil price won’t stay low forever
Three years ago, with the Shell share price at 1,749p, my £5k would have bought me 285 shares. My back-of-fag-packet-calculations suggest I would have bagged around £850 of total dividends since then, assuming I reinvested the lot.
This would have lifted my total return to around £8,000, a return of 60%. Which isn’t too shabby, if you ask me.
Shell looks pretty decent value today, trading at 7.88 times trailing earnings. Its price-to-sales ratio is 1.13 times. That means investors are paying £1.13 for each £1 of revenues it generates today. Cheap but not dirt cheap.
The 16 analysts following the stock are fairly upbeat, with a median one-year price forecast of 3,102p per share. If correct, that’s growth of 20.86% from today. Nice. Of course, nobody can say for sure where Shell will go next.
As ever, much depends on the oil price. Shell has a pretty big safety net, given that it can break even with the price of oil at around $40 a barrel. But the lower oil falls, the more sentiment will slide. With Saudi Arabia rumoured to be increasing output, it could have further to fall.
In the short term, the Shell share price could go anywhere. The long-term outlook remains strong, in my view, as the world consumes ever more energy. Investors have done well over three years. Over five, 10, or 15 years, I’d expect them to do a lot better. Although personally, I’m backing BP. I couldn’t resist its more generous 5.52% yield.
