It’s been a bumpy ride for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) holders in 2024 so far. But things have definitely been on the up recently. The share price is 24% higher than where it stood just one month ago. The S&P 500 has managed a little under 4%.
Once again, we have an example of how stock picking has the potential to seriously grow my wealth at a faster clip than tracking an index. But how likely is this to continue?
Well, no one knows for sure where any stock will go next, particularly one as divisive as this. But I think there are at least a few reasons to be optimistic.
October could be special
One reason to be bullish on Tesla stock in the near term is the forthcoming reveal of the firm’s robotaxi (or Cybercab). This is set for 10 October. There are also rumours that it will be presented at the Paris Motor Show a few days later.
In addition to this, we might get fresh news on updates to existing cars such as the Model Y. This would likely get drivers salivating given that the current version was the world’s best-selling car in 2023.
Another development is the company’s plans to launch Full Self-Driving software in Europe and China in 2025. This is assuming it gets approval from regulators. That could turbocharge overseas revenue for the Austin-based business.
All this helps to explain why the shares have done so well in September.
Things I’m wary of
Naturally, there’s no shortage of risks when it comes to Tesla. Chief among these, in my view, is also the company’s biggest asset.
Like a lot of people, I admire Elon Musk for his vision. But I’m also as concerned as ever by his willingness to get involved in (online) scraps with, well, anyone. Personally, I like business leaders to stick to their knitting and not waste their talent and time on crafting social media posts. Of course, one might argue that the Tesla share price couldn’t deliver the sort of returns it’s managed over the last month without someone like Mr Musk.
More generally, there’s are so many things that could potentially impact production and sales. These range from an unwelcome bounce in inflation to unexpected issues with those aforementioned regulators.
This would be fine for me if the stock was trading at the sort of P/E ratio we’re used to in UK markets. But Tesla isn’t and never has. And Musk has missed plenty of deadlines before.
More exciting than Tesla?
I’m not a huge fan of directly holding go-go growth stocks where emotions rather than fundamentals appear to have a larger influence on their price. So, at the risk of sounding like a stuck record, this is why I remain happy to get exposure to Tesla via FTSE 100-listed Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. Owning this also gives me access to another company run by Elon Musk: SpaceX.
Now, if the latter were to give any indication of going public, the impact on the trust’s share price could be eye-popping. This is why I’ve been adding to my Stocks and Shares ISA holding on and off over the last year or so. The aim is to keep doing so when cash becomes available.
