Over the course of time, some shares do better than others – sometimes far better. There are not many penny shares that move up by 380% in value over five years. One that has is Eurasia Mining (LSE: EUA). But while the EUA share price growth has been incredible over five years, in the past 12 months the share has dropped by over a fifth.
The company announced in the summer that it had “a limited cash runway in the United Kingdom”, with working capital sufficient only for the next few months. The shares were suspended from trading.
However, they are now trading normally once more. Could this offer an opportunity for me as an investor?
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More clarity about the medium term
The shares were restored to trading status this month following the belated publication of Eurasia’s results for last year.
Revenues grew tenfold to £2m, while the company’s total comprehensive loss fell but still came in at £4.8m. The company continued to explore possible sales of its Russian assets, but so far to no avail. The potential sale of those assets is the primary strategic focus of the company for now.
This month, EUA announced it has agreed a convertible trade finance loan to meet its working capital requirements. The initial drawdown on that loan, approximately 40% of what might ultimately be available, is expected to see the company through another year. On top of the loan, a tax refund could help Eurasia’s cash position.
Between a rock and a hard place
So in the short to medium term at least, Eurasia’s financial position seems to have been strengthened. That was not a painless process. All its directors have agreed to defer payment of accrued fees and expenses from the past 12 months as well as any future compensation due, until the loan is repaid in full.
But while the loan buys much needed time, what about the underlying health of the business?
Eurasia is trying to sell Russian assets, as it has been for some time already, in what is effectively a buyer’s market. That may not bode well for the price it can achieve. But the longer it waits to sell, the more working capital it may end up needing. That could lead to further loans, if they are available, or potentially share dilution.
Set against that is the £62m market capitalisation of the company. I think that presupposes significant value in the Russian assets. That seems reasonable to me and, if those assets are successfully sold at a good price, I reckon the current EUA share price could come to be seen as a bargain in retrospect.
The problem as I see it is that there is no guarantee that a sale will happen. Even if it does, it could be that the price is not a good one given the limited pool of potential buyers.
On that basis, this is too speculative an investment story for me right now. From here, I think the EUA share price could yet soar if it strikes a great deal to sell its Russian assets – but equally it might sink if it does not. I have no plans to invest.
